Media, pollsters humbled !

S. Narendra

Donald Trump surrounded by reporters America's leading newspapers of several persuasions- Left, Right, Liberal, C o n s e r v a t i v e , Centrist-New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago
Tribune, The Atlantic Monthly, The Time, The New Yorker and a host of others-had gone out of the way to endorse the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton as their choice for the President. It had become the popular fashion of the season.
As voting commenced weeks before its closure on November 8, exit polls tracked voters almost daily and predicted a sure but narrow win for Clinton. The specialised polling agencies joined in building a consensus that the Democrats would occupy the White House, the Senate and Congress Even on the morning of final polling day the predictions did not change.
However, at night fall, the winning candidate Donald Trump and the media were stunned as the Republican Party was poised to sweep the polls. The party went on to capture the executive, the legislature, a majority of state governors' offices, state houses, and enabled the party to pack the Supreme Court with its conservative nominees.
Among the several explanations the media came up with for misleading themselves was one that stated the obvious--that the voters polled did not reveal their true choice. The humongous amount of media election punditry went something like this. The 'gender gap', that is women voters' turnout had always been higher and historically they have supported the Democrat candidates (55 % voted for Barack Obama in 2102). It was widely touted that 'sisterhood' affinity toward Hillary would prevail and could trip Trump, a known misogynist with a record of misbehaviour with women.
A marked surge in number of Latino and black voters was viewed as a solid base of Democrats. One does not know how much of such poll wisdom flowed to media from Hillary campaign and vice-versa. A top Republican strategist, Mike Murphy confessed to TV channels that he also had predicted Clinton win, And, he exclaimed : "Tonight Data is dead'.

Rupert Murdoch's Fox News, which supports the hard conservative Republicans, was as surprised by the result as the rest of the media pack. The team of the winner anticipating a loss, had not made any preparations to take charge of the government and one week after winning Trump is searching for candidates to fill cabinet posts.

Post poll analysis showed that nearly 59.9 % of white voters, including a majority of less educated white women, carried Trump to victory.

Message and medium

Post poll analysis showed that nearly 59.9 % of white voters, including a majority of less educated white women carried Trump to victory. Donald Trump throughout the campaign created his own media during the campaign and focused on a single message of nativism and threat from 'neo-liberals'. His promise to change the political and economic system in which the top 1% of population cornered the lion's share of prosperity echoed through the uncritical and liberal media (New York Times estimated that Trump received $1.9 billion worth of free publicity) and went on to resonate in conservative hearts.

Trump also drove down media advertising spends; while he spent an average of $5 per vote, Hillary devoted $8.The latter engaged in a lot of negative advertising to depict Trump as unfit for office. Her message –'Stronger Together'- in contrast to Trump's highly polarising one resonated less among voters. The media first played up Trump as he was good for TRP.Later it tried to demolish him. In the US election, performance of candidates in TV debates is supposed to make or mar their chances. Ronald Reagan supposedly won the election on the basis of a quip in a TV debate that raised laughter against his rival Bob Dole. In 2016 TV debates the pollsters had unanimously declared Clinton the winner.

A mood of introspection has pervaded the media. Thomas Friedman reflected this mood in his New York Times article. The media failed to gauge the sense of 'homelessness' felt by many Americans. The key white voters' taunted as 'bigots' by both Hillary campaign and by media pundits expressed their anger in the polling booth

Explaining the sense of 'homelessness', Freidman writes: 'then there is nothing that can make people more angry or disoriented than felling that they have lost their 'home'. For some, it is because America is becoming minoritymajority country and this has threatened the community of middle class whites, particularly those living outside the more cosmopolitan urban areas'. Here in, I think, there is a message for the Indian media and politicians.



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It had become the popular fashion of the season. As voting commenced weeks before its closure on November 8, exit polls tracked voters almost daily and predicted a sure but narrow win for Clinton. The specialised polling agencies joined in building a consensus that the Democrats would occupy the White House, the Senate and Congress Even on the morning of final polling day the predictions did not change. However, at night fall, the winning candidate Donald Trump and the media were stunned as the Republican Party was poised to sweep the polls. The party went on to capture the executive, the legislature, a majority of state governors' offices, state houses, and enabled the party to pack the Supreme Court with its conservative nominees. Among the several explanations the media came up with for misleading themselves was one that stated the obvious--that the voters polled did not reveal their true choice. The humongous amount of media election punditry went something like this. The 'gender gap', that is women voters' turnout had always been higher and historically they have supported the Democrat candidates (55 % voted for Barack Obama in 2102). It was widely touted that 'sisterhood' affinity toward Hillary would prevail and could trip Trump, a known misogynist with a record of misbehaviour with women. A marked surge in number of Latino and black voters was viewed as a solid base of Democrats. One does not know how much of such poll wisdom flowed to media from Hillary campaign and vice-versa. A top Republican strategist, Mike Murphy confessed to TV channels that he also had predicted Clinton win, And, he exclaimed : "Tonight Data is dead'. Rupert Murdoch's Fox News, which supports the hard conservative Republicans, was as surprised by the result as the rest of the media pack. The team of the winner anticipating a loss, had not made any preparations to take charge of the government and one week after winning Trump is searching for candidates to fill cabinet posts. Post poll analysis showed that nearly 59.9 % of white voters, including a majority of less educated white women, carried Trump to victory. Message and medium Post poll analysis showed that nearly 59.9 % of white voters, including a majority of less educated white women carried Trump to victory. Donald Trump throughout the campaign created his own media during the campaign and focused on a single message of nativism and threat from 'neo-liberals'. His promise to change the political and economic system in which the top 1% of population cornered the lion's share of prosperity echoed through the uncritical and liberal media (New York Times estimated that Trump received $1.9 billion worth of free publicity) and went on to resonate in conservative hearts. Trump also drove down media advertising spends; while he spent an average of $5 per vote, Hillary devoted $8.The latter engaged in a lot of negative advertising to depict Trump as unfit for office. Her message –'Stronger Together'- in contrast to Trump's highly polarising one resonated less among voters. The media first played up Trump as he was good for TRP.Later it tried to demolish him. In the US election, performance of candidates in TV debates is supposed to make or mar their chances. Ronald Reagan supposedly won the election on the basis of a quip in a TV debate that raised laughter against his rival Bob Dole. In 2016 TV debates the pollsters had unanimously declared Clinton the winner. A mood of introspection has pervaded the media. Thomas Friedman reflected this mood in his New York Times article. The media failed to gauge the sense of 'homelessness' felt by many Americans. The key white voters' taunted as 'bigots' by both Hillary campaign and by media pundits expressed their anger in the polling booth Explaining the sense of 'homelessness', Freidman writes: 'then there is nothing that can make people more angry or disoriented than felling that they have lost their 'home'. For some, it is because America is becoming minoritymajority country and this has threatened the community of middle class whites, particularly those living outside the more cosmopolitan urban areas'. Here in, I think, there is a message for the Indian media and politicians.