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December 2016 Edition of Power Politics is updated.  Happy Diwali to all our subscribers and Distributors       December 2016 Edition of Power Politics is updated.   Happy Diwali to all our subscribers and Distributors       
Issue:December' 2016

FRANKLY SPEAKING

Dealing with "Cowboy" Donald Trump ahead

"To confront a mind that radically alters our perception of the world," wrote James Peck in The Chomsky Reader, "is one of life's most unsettling yet liberating experiences. Unsettling because it can undercut carefully constructed rationals and liberating because at last the obvious is seen for what is."
US President-elect Donald Trump has an unorthodox "mind" seeking change that could radically "alter" the America. It is likely to be "unsettling," though we cannot be sure of its "liberating experiences" for one and all. Donald Trump's phenomenon reminds me of the Wild West era of "cowboy" who, going by his poll campaign track record, mercifully, shoots from the mouth !
For America's established elitist order of today, it will be quite a task to come to terms with the "obvious" of American ground realities unleased by the flamboyant Republican President - elect for the White House. This is understandable since "gaps" between the elitist leadership and the led invariably exists even in a dynamic democracy, especially in the American society where big money influences politics the most.

Hillary Clinton's Painful Concession After Election Defeat According to the Brookings Institution's Darrell West, there are at least 10 larger-than-life billionaires who are politically the most powerful. They range from media mogulas to high-profile philanthropists to serving cabinet members who are major factors in guiding and directing American political thought process.
Money Power in the US speaks much louder than one can imagine. Indeed, power and money are part of the American democratic system. It is a big business. There is, however, no need to take a gloomy view of new American ground realities thrown up by 70-year old businessman Donald who,Ironically, was riding high on an anti-establishment bandwagon ! In the process, he has today divided the American society. He will be the oldest first-term US President.
As many as 29 of 49 US States voted for Trump, including 5 that had voted for Democratic Obama in 2012. The poll data suggest that 59.4 million people voted for him, which are about 200,000 less than for Hillary Clinton, Democratic candidate.

The New York billionaire, a rank outsider with no experience in public office, right-wing Donald Trump has, in a way, brought about one of the biggest upsets in American history, defeating very experienced Hillary Clinton in a highly toxic campaign. Interestingly, in a conciliatory note after his victory, Trump, for once, praised Hillary for her "years of public service." This is politics !

The New York billionaire, a rank outsider with no experience in public office, right-wing Donald Trump has, in a way, brought about one of the biggest upsets in American history, defeating very experienced Hillary Clinton in a highly toxic campaign. Interestingly, in a conciliatory note after his victory, Trump, for once, praised Hillary for her "years of public service." This is politics !

Trump cleverly cashed in on the anger of America's white working class workers who are said to have suffered job losses. He also reached out to rural 'middle America'. Whether one likes it or not, his populist rhetoric on illegal immigration, globalization, unfair trade practices, Islamic terrorism threat, contempt for civility, decency and "cowboy" style of politics gave him rich dividends electorally, despite losing popular vote.

Trump understood well the volatile public mood against the out-of-touch established order which, a section of the population felt, was taking America in the wrong direction on several critical areas of governance and policies.

In contrast to the status-quoist image of Democratic Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, like India's Narendra Modi of 2014, successfully projected himself as "an agent of change" in the face of not-so-friendly media. In the process, he even proved America's pollsters and political pundits wrong!

The moot point now is : will the Donald Trump presidency continue to be divisive and unpredictable as he was during his poll campaign period ? We need not take an alarmist view of unknown factors of tomorrow. It also must not be overlooked that the US has a well-entrenched bureaucracy in the State Department and the Pentagon. It ensures basic continuity in critical defence and strategic areas of American policies. Even Trump's some of proposed changes would be tested on the touchstone of the Pentagon policy framework.

To say this is not to minimize the importance of the Trump presidency. As it is, the President-elect has promised a lot which, if acted upon fully, will have wide-ranging consequences both in the US and the world over. Of course, he will be expected to honour certain key promises held out to the working class on the jobs front and stagnant incomes. The rest will be matters of hard calculations once he occupies the Oval Office on January 20.

Of course, there are several areas where things could change under a President Donald Trump. He has opposed certain trade deals and threatened punitive 45 per cent tariffs on goods from China.

Trump has reservation on Obama's deal with Iran. He wants Japan and South Korea to develop nuclear arsenals. He has also called global warming a hoax and vowed to cancel the Paris climate accord. He has promised a "tax revolution", pledging to cut taxes across the board. We will have to wait and watch how he goes about the business of change.

As it is, after a no-holds-bar campaign, Trump has already struck a conciliatory note. He has tried to reach out opponents for "guidance". He has also promised to "bind the wounds of division, unify our great country, and be president for all Americans." He has pledged to "deal fairly with everyone" and get along with all other nations willing to get along with us." We will have to wait and watch.

The main point of worry for Trump watchers will be his penchant for unpredictability. As for India, he has given the impression of being India friendly, though has often exhibited a double standard on certain matters concerning India.

We have keep our fingers crossed and see how Trump gives shape to his poll-time rhetoric. I believe that the new President would further strengthen special ties with India built over the years, especially during the Obama presidency.

On one hand, he has hailed the Hindu community in the US for "fantastic contributions to world civilization and to American culture and said that "we look forward to celebrating our shared values of free enterprise, hard work, family values and a strong American foreign policy" On the other hand, his hardline on immigration could have a negative impact on Indian software professionals, now dominating the Silicon Valley.

Barack Obama Equally crucial will be the US president-elect's "hawkish" trade policy of "America First" and cut in the US corporate tax from 35 per cent to 15 per cent. This will prompt American companies like Microsoft, Ford, GM rushing back to the US. This will hit Modi's dream concept of "Make-in-India."
We have keep our fingers crossed and see how Trump gives shape to his poll-time rhetoric. I believe that the new President would further strengthen special ties with India built over the years, especially during the Obama presidency
There are a number of common foreign policy areas which can give a special boost to Indo-American ties, especially Trump's tough stand against the global jehadi threat and the labeling of Pakistan as "a safe haven for terrorists." Equally crucial will be Trump's handling of China on certain economic and political issues which will have a bearing on Narendra Modi's India

Be that as it may.The policy-makers in New Delhi will have to work out a new policy framework for the Trump presidency to push India's vital economic and strategic interests while keeping in view Donald Trump's domestic sensitivities, priorities and upredicability !