It's identity politics, stupid!

Dinesh Sharma

The winter in north India is notorious for its fog. Trains run late, air travel goes haywire and more often than not even road transport crawls at a snail's pace. But foggier is the region's electoral scene, with three of the five States scheduled to hold Assembly elections—Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab. The remaining two – Goa and Manipur-- will only be blips on TV screens when the results are declared on March 11, just two days before boisterous Holi is celebrated in this part of the country.
As the nation gets hooked on the multi-phase Assembly elections, the pollsters, pundits and psephologists are flummoxed by the political manoeuvres, backroom deals and changed loyalties triggered by the denial of tickets in an environment of high drama, ambition, intrigue and electoral passion.

Akhilesh Yadav Of the five State elections, the one in Uttar Pradesh is going to make or mar the political future of the two forces arrayed against one another. If one camp is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the other comprises the opposition groups trying to stop the Modi juggernaut individually or through alliances.

In Uttar Pradesh the siege within the Samajwadi Party oscillated between farce and tragedy. To borrow a phrase from Eliot, the feud in the Yadav family has ended not with a bang but a whimper. From day one Akhilesh Yadav raised the banner of revolt against his father Mulayam Singh, patriarch and SP supremo, while political circles have been abuzz with conspiracy theories about the motive behind the rebellion.
Some think that the youthful Chief Minister was fed up with the interference of some of his close relatives led by his uncle Shivpal Yadav, a powerful minister, whom he had thrown out of the Government. No one could accuse Shivpal of integrity. Not long ago he was caught on-camera telling a meeting of engineers to avoid committing robbery in favour of small thefts .
Besides, his musclemen Mukhatar Ansari and Atique Ahmed whom he tried to bring into the party were certainly not acceptable to Akhilesh Yadav.

Was it a genuine fight between good and evil as supporters of Akhilesh claimed, or everything done as per script? According to some veteran political commentators in Lucknow and Delhi, Steve Jardin, a Harvard University Professor and political strategist hired by Akhilesh had advised him to distance himself from family and traditional party supporters who had given the party a bad name. Mulayam Singh, too, was believed to have played his part as per script.

Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sadhana Gupta and Amar Singh Another theory was that Sadhana Gupta and Amar Singh, known for his deal-making, had prevailed upon Mulayam Singh Yadav to cut Akhilesh to size as he was growing too big for his boots. No wonder, the long political drama playing out in Lucknow for the Election Commission in New Delhi kept the entire State or, for that matter, the country at large in a state of suspense.
However, with the battle for the party symbol of bicycle won by Akhilesh Yadav, the curtain suddenly came down on the family drama. All the characters either exited the stage or threw in the sponge.

Was it a genuine fight between good and evil as supporters of Akhilesh claimed, or everything done as per script? According to some veteran political commentators in Lucknow and Delhi, Steve Jardin, a Harvard University Professor and political strategist hired by Akhilesh had advised him to distance himself from family and traditional party supporters who had given the party a bad name. Mulayam Singh, too, was believed to have played his part as per script.
Has this drama or a genuine battle helped Akhilesh emerge as a hero fighting for clean politics?
Well, his supporters think so. But the jury is still out. The doubters have one inescapable fact on their side: Akhilesh is not confident of facing up to the Modi wave alone. That's why he has sewed a last minute alliance with the Congress by ceding as many as 105 seats to the latter. sew a last minute alliance with the Congress. The S.P. will contest 298 seats out of the 403- strong House.
However, the S.P. has ditched Ajit Singh, son of Prime Minister Charan Singh and legendary farmers' leader who had unchallenged sway among the Jats of western Uttar Pradesh. There are two reasons Akhilesh has decided not to enter into any alliance with Ajit Singh. Firstly, he is perceived as the most unreliable quantity in the Indian politics. Secondly, any truck with Ajit Singh might have alienated the Muslims of the western Uttar Pradesh where the embers of the riots are still smouldering.

Mayawati What has finally persuadede Akhileshto enter into an alliance with the Congress is his paarty's calculation that with the two parties coming together Muslims will rally around them. Besides, 13 per cent Yadavs and nearly 10 per cent Congress party's vote share will make the alliance a formidable force . The electoral strategies of the S.P. and the BSP led by Dalit icon Mayawati are anchored in caste politics.
Now the supporters of both Congress and the S.P. appear to have been energised with the prospects of a joint campaign by Priyanka Gandhi and Dimple Yadav, wife of the U.P. Chief Ministeer, who is already in politics, having won a Lok Sabha seat for herself.

Whatever the electoral fate of the two parties, the alliance is historic, indeed. S.P. patriach Mulayam Singh Yadav who formed the party 25 years ago and nursed it single-handed had spent his entire political career as a socialit. For a man known as a Congress baiter, this is first time that his party has joined hands with the Congress. This is what explains Mulayam Singh's absence from the joint show where the alliance was formally announced. Well, as they say pigs can fly and anything can happen in politics.
In any case, the State is poised for a three-pronged electoral battle among the S.P-Congress, BJP and BSP. As things stand, the BSP is on a slippery ground today as the upper castes, non-Jatav Dalits, Muslims and the OBCs have deserted it for a variety of reasons. Only a year ago the BSP was reckoned to be a front runner in the State.
One common feature of the elections in all the five States is the blatant or subtle attempts to leverage religious and caste identities. While the SP, BSP and Congress are banking on Muslim, Yadav and Dalit voters in U.P. and Uttarakhand, the Congress's USP is Thakur and Muslim combination in Uttrakhand. In Punjab, both Congress and the Akalis are trying to prove the true champions of the Jat Sikhs.

Surprisingly, the BJP which too had its share of identity politics in the form of Hindutva, has opted to contest the election only on the platform of economic development. And the demonetisation is going to be a key plank of its campaign. That the party is not raking up the Ram Mandir issue is very significant. The BJP has sidelined firebrand Hindutwa faces such as Yogi Adityanath of Gorakhpur, another proof of the party's move towards a secular brand of politics.

The elections in Punjab and Goa are unique in themselves. In both States, there is a very strong antiincumbency factor. The BJP is a junior partner in the Akali Government in Punjab. It is going to sink or swim with the Akali Dal. The BJP suffered a big jolt with its most familiar Sikh face, Navjot Singh Sidhu, switiching his loyalty to the Congress.

As far as the social equation is concerned, the BJP is expecting to garner votes from the upper castes, OBCs and major support from the non-Jatav or Chamar sections of Dalits. Additionally, the party hopes to win over the swing voters by using the Modi magic.

Navjot Singh Sidhu Interestingly, the AAP which had its baptism as a crusader for clean politics, good governance and nonsectarian approach has made a complete about-turn.A look at the ubiquitous posters of Kejriwal in Delhi and Punjab wearing a yellow 'patka', a kind of Sikh turban shows the change he has undergone. And juxtapose this picture of Kejriwal embracing Lalu Yadav, has been convicted for corruption, during the last Bihar Assembly elections, and one kind find how far he has travelled in his pursuit of political goal. Well, it was in sync with his transformation that the Delhi Chief Minister went all the way to the Vatican to attend the canonization of Mother

Teresa. After all he had his eyes on the Goa Assembly elections where there is a substantial Catholic population.
So what will be the final outcome in Uttar Pradesh? Now the State is poised for a triangular fight between the SP-Congress alliance, BJP and SP. The advantage of the SP is that it has a youthful leader as the candidate for Chief Minister while the BJP has none. But if the fight gets too close, the State might end up with a hung Assembly.

That the BJP is going to the hustings without a chief m i n i s t e r i a l candidate cuts both ways. While it is a disadvantage on the one hand, it also acts as a cohesive factor as every leader or social groups can keep their aspirations alive.
Neighbouring Uttarakhand is another state witnessing turmoil of a different kind. The outgoing Congress government headed by Harish Rawat is mired in charges of corruption. The party has also seen some last minute desertions that have weakened it further. It appears that the BJP may wrest the State from the Congress. However, BJP is also facing rebellion as the party has embraced several Congress deserters and given them ticket.

Goa too is witnessing a replay of the Punjab scenario. The BJP has lost many of the advantages it had last time when it swept to power. Nearly 30 per cent Christian voters deserted the Congress and voted for the BJP. The situation is different this time. While the BJP is riven by dissent and desertions, AAP is into the game of being a spoilsport.

The elections in Punjab and Goa are unique in themselves. In both States, there is a very strong antiincumbency factor. The BJP is a junior partner in the Akali Government in Punjab. It is going to sink or swim with the Akali Dal. The BJP suffered a big jolt with its most familiar Sikh face, Navjot Singh Sidhu, switiching his loyalty to the Congress. In Punjab the issues of corruption against the Badal family and the menace of drug trade allegedly promoted by one of its members are a major drag on the Akali-BJP alliance.
Both in Punjab and Goa the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is lurking around like Banco's ghost. It has fielded a good number of candidates against the Akali Dal-BJP combine. AAP hopes to cut into the vote banks of both the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP combine. If the State were to see a direct fight between the Congress and the ruling Akali Dal, there would be no prize for guessing about the winner. But with AAP as the third force, it is to be seen if it would be a spoiler for the Akali Dal-BJP combine or the Congress. There is a risk of a hung Assembly in Punjab as well.
Goa too is witnessing a replay of the Punjab scenario. The BJP has lost many of the advantages it had last time when it swept to power. Nearly 30 per cent Christian voters deserted the Congress and voted for the BJP. The situation is different this time. While the BJP is riven by dissent and desertions, AAP is into the game of being a And the fifth State, Manipur, where the Congress is in power is likely to vote the present government back in. Long blockades and agitations there can be blamed on the Central Government, helping the Congress win the sympathy votes.
Well, even if the winter fog will have cleared by the time the elections are over, the political mist will go away only on March 11 when the results in the five States are declared.