A premature proposal

Subhrangshu Gupta Mamata Banerjee's T r i n a m u l Congress has been elevated to a national party and according to the Election Commission's decision, the TMC is now a party of equal status and position with the 132 year old Congress and the BJP(presently ruling) .

Subhrangshu Gupta With its 34 members in the Lok Sabha , the TMC which has also its representations in the state assembly in Tripura, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh holds the fourth position in the 543 member Lok Sabha after the BJP( 282), Congress(44) and the AIDMK(37). In the 245-member Rayya Sabha, these parties have 55, 60, 13 and 12 members respectively.
But still the TMC is basically a strong state party based in West Bengal which under Mamata's lone leadership had ousted the CPI(M)- led Bengal left front government after it's prolonged 34 year of rule (critics say, misrule!) in the election in 2011.
Despite strong public opinions against her party for the alleged involvement of their several MPs, MLAs and other leaders in the Sarada and Rose Valley chit fund scams and the bribe taking scandal detected by the Naroda sting operation, Mamata is still an allaccepted and a very strong party leader in the state with her firm conviction and dedicated leadership.
But on the eve of the forthcoming assembly elections in UP( 403) and four other states ( Punjab- 117), Uttaranchal( 70), Manipur(6) and Goa (40), all totaling only 690 of the total 4120 assembly seats( including 607 SC and 554 ST) in the country's 29 state Assemblies and the union territories of Puducherry and the national capital of Delhi, Mamata's call for a national government at this juncture for replacing the present Modi government has been premature, an odd and absurd proposal.

Some other strong regional parties which are with Mamata are not in good shape. The most powerful party in UP, namely, the Samajbawdi party, which has been in power under the leadership of the "young" chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, is now divided into two groups- one headed by the Netaji Mulayum Singh Yadav and another by the son, Akhilesh, following the family feud over the control of the "throne".

She made a foul cry against the prime minister Modi, personally, after the arrest of several TMC MPs including the TMC leader in the Lok Sabha, Sudip Bandopadhyya by the CBI in connection with their alleged involvement in the Sarada and Rose Valley scams.

It is true the election in UP is certainly a very important chapter in the national politics and it's result will be an indicator to the country's future political scenario. But the 2019 Lok Sabha poll which will determine the political fate of the country's 130 lakh population for the next five year, has been still far off.

There will be another rounds of assembly elections in 2018 and 2019 in the remaining 19 states (totaling less than 3000 seats) including Gujarat, Assam, Haryana, Karnakata , Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The elections in West Bengal, Bihar, Tamilnadu, Delhi and Kerala will be held sometime in May-June, 2021).

Hence at this early stage, Mamata's call for the formation of an anti-BJP government at the Centre with the participation of all secular forces has been a preposterous decision. Still Mamata tried her best to bring together all the small but strong state and regional parties with the call for saving the nation from a total disaster. Her call is more needed for countering the "falls and fabricated charges against her party men by the ruling BJP and against the arrest of some TMC MPs and leaders by the CBI" to some the Congress, AAP, RJD etc have already responded.

The "young" Rahul Gandhi has extended his supports and joined hands with her for fighting against the BJP on the de-monetisation issue and other anti-people decisions of the Modi government. Rahul and her mother are also the victims of the "false allegations" of the BJP government.

Arvind Kejriwal Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal came out in the open in striking at Modi and BJP president Amit Shah on the de-monetisation issue in the plea of driving out the black money. The decision does not really aim at against the black money but it a step for saving and protesting the interests of the black money hoarders and the corrupt business men who have joined with the BJP, alleged Kejriwal.
Despite several odd situations mainly due to the Centre's apathy and the BJP and the state congress's oppositions, still Kejriwal stands strong and solid. But he will not side with Mamata on her corruption issue.

Akhilesh Yadav Some other strong regional parties which are with Mamata are not in good shape. The most powerful party in UP, namely, the Samajbawdi party, which has been in power under the leadership of the "young" chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, is now divided into two groups- one headed by the Netaji Mulayum Singh Yadav and another by the son, Akhilesh, following the family feud over the control of the "throne".
Akhilesh has the support of maximum number of MLAs and other leaders, while the Netaji has got by his side, his brother Sivpal, his second wife Sadhana , Amar Singh and host of some other family members and relatives.

Sasikala Natarajan The condition of the AIDMK in Tamilnanu is also no better after the passing away of the mentor, the Amma Jaylalitha. Now her life-long closed aide the trusted Sashikala is on the party head, while another Sashikala (Pushpa), a Rayya Sabha MP( at the mercy of the late Amma) had been shunning her sword for taking on her namesake , claiming that she was the real heir of the Amma.
The BSP leader Mayabati will prefer standing noncommittal and she will be counting the waves by sitting on the sea shore before jumping into any decision. But Bihar's Nitish Kumar and the BJD chief Naveen Patnaik have already supported Modi on the demonetisation issue vis-à-vis the drive against black money.

Nitish Kumar, Narendra Modi and Naveen Patnaik The RJD chief Lallu Yadav has been a falling star but still he has a substantial number of his party men and supporters by his side in Bihar,
who will be ready to sacrifice themselves for the cause of their leader .
It is a fact that in the wake of Modi's de-monetisation disaster and several other odd decisions , the BJP's popularity has been much eroded, though the party leadership claims they would win the UP elections with a massive victory because of their "successful" drive against black money and the recent successful surgical operation by the troops against the terrorists in the POK.
But still it is somewhat wishful thinking that the BJP will win a massive victory in the coming elections and its formation of the single party government at the Centre after 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
It is certain that there will be a coalition government in UP after the poll and also at the Centre after 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But whether these governments will be the BJP led or the Congress controlled, has been a matter of speculation at this stage.

However, it can be said with much certainty that in the future ministry making business, at the Centre, Mamata Banerjee will have her relevance. But Mamata will have to change her diplomacy and follow a new strategy.

So far all through her political career, Mamata had adopted the path of protest and agitation for justice to the people. She all the time sided with the oppressed and deprived section of the people. In her political mission, she also found by her side several sincere and dedicated persons,- mostly, from the Congress party, who worked with her in her political mission.

But now her main task will be to cleanse the party's tarnished image by cleansing herself and the party men involved in corruption and criminal activities. Mainly, by denial of charges and alleging about the conspiracy theory against the Modi government on their corruption charges, will not be enough. She will have to set up some concrete evidences in favor of the conspiracy allegation.

Prolonged protest and agitation against the conspirators are all right but they are not all which would repair the tarnished image of herself and other party men.

We have already seen how in the changing political situation, the country has turned to the coalition politics (when the single-party government has become a history of the past) when some small and regional parties had played important role in the ministry making. But now many such parties have been passing through crisis because of their inner squabbles and improper leadership.

The CPI(M) is a national party but it's importance in the national level had been minimized to a large extent. The party's present strength in the Lok Sabha is only 9 ( 8 in Rayya Sabha), while from West Bengal ( which has been the party's citadel with it's strong base in the last few decades) the party has only two MPs- Md Salim and Md Badaruddoza to the Lok Sabha after the 2014 election.

In West Bengal, the party has been in a much bad shape without proper leadership. Many leaders and cadres had already left to join the TMC while many others mostly old and aged after being disillusioned and disgusted distanced themselves from the party. The present leadership of "Surya-Sujan-Samik and Salim" is not competent enough in prospering the party and running it in the right direction and once again bringing back the party to the forefront.

Mamata has been engaging herself and also making her party men engaged in raising voice against Modi for misung of official powers against her and the TMC leaders and workers on some false and fabricated charges.

Instead of involving themselves wholeheartedly and sincerely in revitalizing the party again from the grassroots, these leaders are now very much engaged in attacking Mamata and the TMC leaders, which in no way will benefit the CPI(M) politically.

Mamata in the past had been with the BJP and the Congress governments and she also participated in their governments. And she can have still both the options before her. But she will have to chose the right party. In the present circumstances, the Congress under Rahul Gandhi' s stewardship has been much closed to Mamata.

At this stage, it is too early to forecast anything about the country's political future after 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But the people will certainly want a stable and wellfunctioning government and in that government making, leaders like a Mamata or Akhilesh or a Mayabati or Lallu Yadav and other leaders certainly will have the relevance. But these leaders should make themselves available and acceptable to the party to be in power.

Mamata has been engaging herself and also making her party men engaged in raising voice against Modi for misung of official powers against her and the TMC leaders and workers on some false and fabricated charges. Not only in Bengal, the TMC leaders and workers have been sent to Delhi and other states for oraganising protests and demonstrations against Modi.

Her protest was mainly because of the arrests and harassment of the TMC leaders by the CBI and the ED at the instance of the prime minister. But the protest was also against Modi's decision of de-monetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes vis-à-vis the suffering the people that they were facing after the demonetisation decision.

But Mamata too similarly faced demonstration and indignation from the BJP and some other adversaries( mainly, the CPI(M) )for her and the party leaders' alleged involved in the chit fund scams and other corruption activities, which had been inquired into by the CBI at the direction of the supreme court.

Now Mamata needs to follow a new strategy instead of mainly concentrating on protest and demonstration with the allegation that all charges had been framed and they are baseless. But the mere denial of charges and raising protest and also making counter-charges were not enough, which she needs to realize.