The Dragon on the ascent !
Syed Nooruzzaman
Narendra Modi
Since the country is fast
getting into the election
mode with the NDA
government going to
conclude its five-year
tenure in May next year, it
is time to critically assess its gains
and losses in various fields.
Here the focus is on Prime
Minister Narendra Modi's conduct of
the country's foreign policy, an area
which has consumed much of his
time and energy besides India's
considerable financial resources. Till
now he has visited more than 55
countries, including five trips to the
US and China and four to Russia and
Germany.
However, according to the
government's own estimate, the
country required as much as $1
trillion as FDI in 2014, mostly in the
infrastructure sector, as stated by
Modi during his first visit to the US as
Prime Minister.
The figure for the FDI requirement
today obviously must be much
higher as indicated by the fact that in
2004 then Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh told an audience in
the US that India needed FDI inflows
to the tune of $150 billion, but the Modi government's estimate rose to
$1 trillion after a decade.
However, can foreign direct
investors continue to keep their
interest in India intact in view of
disturbing reports from different
parts of the country relating to the
missing fear of the law as
indicated by increasing incidents
of rape and lynching of Indians by
Indians on one pretext or another.
Overseas investors, obviously,
cannot feel confident of setting up
shop in a country which suffers
from social peace and a major law
and order problem.
Now let us have a close look at
India's relations with its neighbours
and major countries of the world as
at the very beginning of his tenure as
Prime Minister, Modi had made it
clear that improving ties with the
countries in India's immediate
neighbourhood, as part of the
"Neighbourhood First" policy, would
be given top priority. But today one
finds that the achievements made on
this front are not in accordance with
the expectations.
India had invested considerably
in Nepal during its tumultuous
days after the end of monarchy.
Yet Kathmandu speaks a language
indicating that India does not
figure prominently in Nepal's
schemes for rebuilding the nation.
Nepalese Prime Minister KP
Sharma Oli some time ago bluntly
told Indian diplomats "not to
interfere in Nepal's internal
affairs". Contrary to this, Nepal's
relations with China have been on
the upswing ever since the dawn
of democracy in the Himalayan
nation. Perhaps, Kathmandu has
become more suspicious of India after New Delhi's denial of some
essential supplies to Nepal which
were later on made available to it
by China.
KP Sharma Oli
India has been facing a major
challenge from China in other SAARC
countries too. India got an excellent
opportunity to increase its presence
in Sri Lanka when Sri Lanka Freedom
Party leader Mahinda Rajapaksa lost
power in the elections there. He was
too well known for his pro-China
stance. However, that opportunity is
yet to be fully exploited though the
new President, Maithripala Sirisena,
the main architect of Rajapaksa's
defeat, and his Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe are very much
inclined towards improving their
country's relations with India.
Mahinda Rajapaksa
So far as India's ties with
Bangladesh are concerned, the Modi
government has, no doubt, added a
new feather to its cap by clinching a
major land boundary agreement with
Dhaka, but China continues to be the
most sought-after regional power in
that country.
Maithripala Sirisena
The Chinese presence in
Bangladesh is expanding fast with
two special economic zones
coming up there with massive
Chinese assistance. There are
many other projects also in which
China is closely involved in a
country otherwise having a pro-
India Awami League government.
Myanmar too has an almost similar story to tell.
Despite the much-publicised
"Neighbourhood First" policy,
India is nowhere near China in
Myanmar's scheme of things.
Ranil Wickremesinghe
An interesting policy shift in the
case of Pakistan was expected with
Modi's sudden decision for a
stopover at Lahore to have an
informal interaction with then Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif while being on
his way back home after participating
in the India-Afghanistan talks in
Kabul in December 2015. Modi,
perhaps, believed that a personal
touch to the cause of India-Pakistan
relations might help in making the
other side realise that New Delhi's
style of functioning had changed with
the BJP-led NDA coming to power.
However, the ground reality on this
front remains unchanged, whatever
the factors involved.
PM Nawaz Sharif shakes hands
with his Indian counterpart
Narendra Modi upon the latter's
arrival at the Allama Iqbal
International Airport in Lahore in
December 2015
major achievement for the Modi
government was seen in the signing
of an agreement with Iran for the
development of Chabahar port, but
that too is losing its sheen following
an accord between Teheran and
Beijing over Chabahar. The second
factor that may overshadow what
India gained by providing assistance
for Chabahar is the US withdrawal
from the international nuclear deal
with Teheran and the pressure being
brought to bear on New Delhi for
distancing itself from Teheran.
With the US being no longer
associated with the deal, the
sanctions it had earlier imposed on
Teheran are effective again and that
means a lot of difficulties in doing
business with Iran. Besides these
factors, any country strengthening or
expanding ties with Iran is bound to
be looked at with suspicion by the
US.
Donald Trump
Experts believe that Modi's special
interest in taking our relations with
the US to a new high has brought
about dynamism in New Delhi's ties
with Washington which is expected
to benefit India in many ways.
That may be true, but how to
handle the situation arising out of the
US decision on the Iranian nuclear deal is going to be a major challenge
for New Delhi in the days to come.
Besides these, it will not be easy for
India to deal with the trade-war like
conditions created by the US though
New Delhi has responded
courageously to certain trade-related
moves made by the Trump
administration, providing proof that
India will not sit quietly if the US
continues with its coercive trade
diplomacy to make India fall in line
on the Iranian front.
Xi Jinping
The US under President Donald
Trump thinks that the Iranian nuclear
deal will only harm the American
interests in the West Asian region
and elsewhere whereas the
European Union, Russia and China
consider the deal as a major step
forward in promoting peace in the world. What will be India's stand in
such a scenario? Under the prevailing
circumstances, it is not so easy to
take a decision, but the world will
respect India more if it continues to
demonstrate courage in handling the
US moves aimed at frightening New
Delhi if it refuses to toe the US line on
the Iranian issue.
Experts believe that India is
providing proof that it has acquired
enough capacity to ignore external
pressures and go by its own larger
interests on various global or
regional issues. The belief is based on
how India conducted itself during the
Wuhan one-on-one dialogue
between Modi and Chinese President
Xi Jinping to end the bitterness in the
relations between India and China
following the Doklam crisis.