Issue :   
September 2019 Edition of Power Politics is updated.          September 2019 Edition of Power Politics is updated.
Issue:June' 2019

PM’S I-DAY ADDRESS

Hard action needed for
new hopes

S. Narendra

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sixth address from the Red Fort, like the first in 2014, has briefly set out an agenda with priorities. Each of the latter and would go to determine India’s security, properly understood in all dimensions, and the country’s future. As such, the amplification of the priorities set out into implementable policies for action by governments at the Centre and in the states right down to Panchayats should be the next priority.

Among dozens policies and programmes flagged by the Prime Minister, a few are closely linked to the government’s foremost agenda of taking India’s GDP from the current level of $2.8 trilion to $5 trillion. A very big jump indeed. As he himself noted, it is not easy but a dream has been defined like his ‘make in India’ and “swacch Bharat” announced in the first term. The reality is that this dream has to sail through the current lower than expected growth rate of 6.8 in 2019, against the earlier projected growth rate of over 7 per cent.

Three things fire up an economy: investment (private and public), consumption and healthy foreign and domestic markets. For some time now, India has witnessed declines on all three fronts, despite the government’s effort to increase its investment for making up the huge lag in private investment.

Several structural weaknesses have surfaced in the economy; like the highly troubled financial sector, oversupply in the construction sector, consistently weak manufacturing, unprecedented distress in agriculture, massive layoffs amidst a job-short economy, shortfall in government’s revenue expectations.

The global economic and political headwinds like US-China trade war, Brexit, tension in West Asia are gravely complicating the management of the Indian economy. The global economic growth rate for 2019 has been lowered from 3.6 % to 3.3 %. As the World Economic Outlook of UN points out, climate change, trade wars and financial uncertainty are pulling down global growth. A section of economic opinion is even fearing return of a global recession calling for concerted corrective action by world leaders.

Nearly a dozen central banks led by the US Federal Reserve have cut interest rates to ease liquidity. Our own RBI has downscaled India’s growth expectation to 5.9 % ( for the Iast quarter of 2019), while announcing a significant rate cut to make borrowing for investment cheaper. Fortuitously, international oil price is ruling at $ 60 per barrel, offering the government a major relief.

Three things fire up an economy: investment (private and public), consumption and healthy foreign and domestic markets. For some time now, India has witnessed declines on all three fronts, despite the government’s effort to increase its investment for making up the huge lag in private investment.

The government at the highest level obviously is aware of the huge economic problems, while announcing the $5 trillion dream. One has to wait to see how it proposes to overcome the problems in the coming days.

Population growth

A rather sensitive subject like population stabilisation was picked up by prime minister Narendra Modi that is both significant, and relevant to the big dream. The good news on our population growth trend is that the national average birth rate has fallen to a little above replacement level (2 per cent). But the alarming news is that the birth rate (TFR or total fertility rate ) in seven most populous and poor states like Bihar, UP, Odissa and others continues to be very high.

Most of the population decline has come from relatively prosperous western and southern states. The population issue is sensitive because the minority Muslims are seen as opposed to family planning on religious grounds and any one in the government mentioning the subject from a prominent platform is viewed as controversial. NDA of 1990s had raised the issue but consigned it to an unwieldy committee of about 100 persons.

After the backlash caused by coercive family planning drives during 1975 Indira Gandhi’s emergency, all political parties stayed away from the subject. A precious asset like human resource was thus allowed to grow into a problem.

Political will

One hopes that the government has some immediate, pragmatic plan to take the states and all sections of the population with it in tackling this huge problem.

Jalshakti

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while expressing his solidarity with lakhs of people coping with floods in several states, used the occasion for giving a call for better water management. This came in the backdrop of a NITI Ayog report highlighting that 80 per cent of households do not have piped drinking water. About 600 million people daily face serious water access problems. According to the Economist, by exporting huge amounts of water –intensive farm products like rice and sugar, India is depleting its water resources.

While drawing attention to the government’s Rs 3.5 lakh crore Jal Jeevan mission to supply piped drinking water, Modi repeated his call for “per drop, more crop”, and went on to emphasise the need for less water intensive farming and lesser use of chemical fertilisers. Obviously, climate change is forcing itself into some action, that can be seen from PM’s decision to ban single use plastic and attention to alternatives to plastic packaging. The newly created Jal Shakti ministry is expected to bring an integrated approach to India’s water security.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while expressing his solidarity with lakhs of people coping with floods in several states, used the occasion for giving a call for better water management. This came in the backdrop of a NITI Ayog report highlighting that 80 per cent of households do not have piped drinking water.

EoDB or EoL

There was a clever repackaging of the ease of doing business (EoDB) perceived as benefitting mostly the businesses into or ease of living (EoL). With a turn of phrase, Modi has taken the message to ordinary people. This EoL is a move to lessen the burden of unnecessary laws and rules that dog the common person’s everyday life that is bound to resonate well with the public. While PM has flagged this, he has to coax the states where such burden is heaviest to go after EoL in a mission mode. EoL is vital for improving national productivity.

New growth centre

People may have missed the significance of PMs reference to the districts in states to be developed as the hub of growth. India has over 650 districts of varying sizes and populations. While Thane in Maharastra has the highest population density, Kaacch in Gujarat has the biggest area. Each district has some or other economic potential that requires harnessing.

This idea is not new. After 14 banks nationalisation in 1969,each district was assigned to a lead bank branch to survey its growth and development potential and tasked to work for the purpose in cooperation with the state administration.

Under Janata government , George Fernandez as the Industries minister had mooted the scheme for setting up District Industries Centres. Such centres were supposed to work as singlewindow service providers to businesses.

Then there was the Planning Commission’s scheme for developing 100s of new growth centres for ensuring balanced development and avoid overcrowding of businesses and people in a few cities as it is happening now. The political short- term interests tend to focus on a few existing cities like Bengaluru for industry and business.

Unofficial estimates show that this city population has crossed one crore and political-realty interests are hatching plans to accommodate another 1.5 crore. Bengaluru’s roads are clogged, garbage over-flowing and it is already water stressed. This situation is being repeated in other cities and big towns.

Driving growth away into hinterland would reduce the attraction of present big cities for people and would facilitate a modicum of urban planning. It is a step towards better internal security management . A national political will has to be forged for this agenda to take off. At long last, it has figured on the PM’s plate. This augurs well for the future.

Driving growth away into hinterland would reduce the attraction of present big cities for people and would facilitate a modicum of urban planning. It is a step towards better internal security management . A national political will has to be forged for this agenda to take off. At long last, it has figured on the PM’s plate. This augurs well for the future.

CDS Post

I am taking up last CDS or the proposal to appoint a Chief of Defence Staff that has meaning for external security mentioned in the address. Under the British rule, India did have a C-in-C or Commander-in-Chief, who reported to the Governor General and the Secretary of State in London. There was also a Defence member (civilian) in the Viceroy’s council. After the adoption of the 1950 Constitution, this designation CinC was ceremonially conferred on the President of India signalling civilian control over defence forces.

In the present arrangement, the three wings of the defence forcesNavy, Air Force and the Army have their commanders. A post of Chairman of Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) was created some time ago for inter-services coordination and the senior most serving commander among the three service chiefs occupies this post.

More than once during external aggression faced by India, inter-services coordination has showed up as a major gap. In addition to c o o r d i n a t i o n , the need for medium and long - term planning of a r m s p r o c u r e m e n t , t h r e a t s assessment and response to it as a single fighting unit demands a single-window leadership.

In both the UK and the US, a CDS functions as the military adviser to the political executive. As pointed out by the prime minister, the nature of war and security in this digital era and artificial intelligence has changed. The introduction of CDS at the helm of strategic defence matters, hopefully, should remove the perceived weaknesses in the present arrangement.

However, there are several things to be sorted out before operationlising the new institution, such as clarifying the relationship between the civilian bureaucracy headed by senior civil servants and CDS, National Security Adviser and Council, Scientific Adviser to the Defence Minister, and the political executive. The civilian bureaucracy in the defence ministry is normally expected to offer administrative support and financial advice to the defence minister. Its proximity to the political leadership is a sore point with the top defence brass.

In Britain, there were complaints that the institution of CDS inserted a new layer of military bureaucracy. The longest serving officer in the post, late Lord Mountbatten, reportedly engaged in projects which were of no strategic value.

Again, the PM has taken a call on a long –overdue change. How it would bring about better utilisation of resource allocated and adds efficiency to security management lies in the future.

There was a brief reference to Article 370 and 35A removal ,with the reorganisation of the Jammu, Kashmir and Ladkah and Kargil as union territories, followed by the promise of ushering in a new development era in the reorganised territories.

The minimal treatment in the speech to an unprecedented step was perhaps because the issue was coming up before the United Nations Security Council, and hence, diplomatically delicate. It was a welcome change that Pakistan went unmentioned in the address, despite provocation from the other side.

Lights and cameras are behind : now comes the hard part-action.

The author has been
Distinguished Civil Servant
and thinker of India.