Coping with Trump's unpredictability

S.Narendra

Vladimir Putin The first foot- prints of American President Donald Trump's foreign policy emerged in early April when 59 Tomahawk missiles hit Syrian president Assad's forces. Known for his unpredictable policy U-turns, President Trump claimed that' the missile strikes were in vital national security interest' ( ?), The missile strike was in response to the Syrian government's (alleged) use of chemical weapons against rebels. As a Republican candidate in the presidential election in 2016 Donald Trump had decried US involvement in conflicts abroad, including in West Asia. The fire works against Syrian government simultaneously exploded several of Trump's

Donald Trump Trump had asserted that he would find ways to work with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on several fronts. A kind of modus operandi had been arrived at by both US and Moscow in the Syrian conflict although their objectives were different. By attacking Assad, solidly backed by Russia, and accusing the latter of complicity in the Syrian use of chemical weapons, Moscow and Washington relations have become frosty once again.
This raises one more intriguing question. Was this sudden military action in Syria a clever ploy to distract attention from investigations into Russian spying during the 2016 presidential election in order to swing it in favour of Trump? His Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, formerly of Exxon Mobil has had close relations with the Russian President.
Most commentators had assumed that Trump and Putin would work together in the fight against ISIS, and the issue of President Assad's removal was on the back burner.

Rex Tillerson Not only this assumption has been belied, but it also puts a question mark over the future course of the fight against ISIS. Since 2014, President Putin had become a major player in the imbroglio of West Asia. The perception was that US was deliberately reducing itself to be irrelevant in the region. This had worried the long time allies of America such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Sunni Muslim countries.
The American overtures to Iran under President Obama and his cold shouldering of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, had disturbed old equations among the regional powers. In fact, Saudi Arabia and Israel had come together against their common foe Iran. The Saudi kings have taken the lead in setting up a regional joint military force ( mostly from Sunni Muslim member countries) under the command of Pakistan's ex-army chief, Gen. Sherief.

Chief General Raheel Sharif This move was to bolster not only the Saudi position in the region but also to fill the vacuum caused by American relative indifference to get involved in the regional conflicts. As a poll candidate Trump had declared that the US would demand from its military alliance partners in NATO ( Saudi Arabia is a military ally) and others to bear greater financial and other costs. As President Trump has changed his stand not only on the US commitment to NATO but has decried his predecessor's so-called policy of 'strategic patience', a reference to the Obama administration refusal to pull teht rigger at each and every provocation by adversaries.

Mike Pence Vice President Pence visiting the tense border between north and south Korea in mid-April declared that if China was unable to rein in North Korea, the US would not hesitate to act decisively against Pyongyang's provocations.
Without formally reversing his predecessors commitment not to put American boots in the conflict- ridden Afghansitan and Iraq, the number of American 'military advisers' a euphemism for troops, has been increased. Their role in beating back ISIS from Mosul was crucial.
The latest deployment of 'mother of all bombs' for blowing up Taliban's seemingly impregnable underground tunnels in Afghanistan carries a definitive military and diplomatic message to the adversaries in the region (Iran) and elsewhere, including to North Korea with nuclear ambitions. This and the US administration's not so veiled threat of re-imposition of sanctions against Iran unfortunately have come on the eve of presidential elections in Iran, where the moderate leader President Rouhani is likely to face tough challenge by anti-west hardliners.
Only silver -lining appearing amidst Trump's unpredictable foreign policy stance relating to West Asia is his refusal to endorse the Israeli government's proposal for building fresh housing estates in occupied Palestinian land on the West Bank.
April also saw President Trump playing host at his golf course hotel to Chinese President Xi, another U-turn in policy. This meeting was being held against the backdrop of increasing tensions in the north Pacific region following North Korea's launch of missiles capable of carrying nuclear war heads and an announcement to conduct its 6th nuclear test. In a message of support to allies like Japan and South Korea, and a warning to Pyongyang, Trump had despatched US armada to the area.

The month of April was also notable because President Trump completed his first 100 bumpy days in office on April 29th. The opinion surveys ,that had consistently rated him lower than any of his predecessors at that stage in office, suddenly improved in the wake of attack on President Assad.

Xi Jinping If media accounts of the parleys with President Xi are correct, Trump and Xi mostly focused on ways to deal with North Korea's belligerence. In order to persuade China to use its influence on North Korea not to develop a nuclear weapon, President Trump ate his very widely reported pledge to name China a 'currency manipulator' and to impose a 45 % tariif on Chinese imports and other trade related penalties within the first 100 days in office.

Bashar al-Assad Without any sign of embarrassment the President said : ' when China is working with us (on North Korea),why should I call them currency manipulators'. Here one spots an astute businessman deal –maker who opts for real-politik. As an aside, it needs to be noted that a few days before President Xi's travel to the US, the Chinese authorities had fasttracked clearances for several pending projects in the country belonging to Trump firms.
The month of April was also notable because President Trump completed his first 100 bumpy days in office on April 29th. The opinion surveys ,that had consistently rated him lower than any of his predecessors at that stage in office, suddenly improved in the wake of attack on President Assad. Even the adversarial liberal US media approved of the President's action. The Washington- based online site Politico went so far as to suggest that Trump was on the way to win.



		EDITOR'S MAIL MATTERS OF PUBLIC POLICY MARCH OF AYODHYA INDIAN PRESIDENCY REALPOLITIK FOR CREDIBLE OPPOSITION A GAME CHANGER DEFENCE MODERNISATION STATE OF EDUCATION DELHI MCD POLLS FRANKLY SPEAKING SACRILEGE IN PUNJAB KASHMIR WATCH CRIMES AGAINST WOMEN POLL-YEAR HIMACHAL KERALA UNDER LDF CHANDIGARH DIARY U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AMERICAN DIARY JADAV ISSUE INDO-BANGLADESH TIES CIVIL AVIATION HITS & MISSES TEST CRICKET SPORTS BOOK BAZAAR SIGNS OF THE TIMES MIGRATION & WOMEN'S RIGHTS YOGA IN DAILY LIFE-XIII ART OF LIVING Issue:May' 2017 Subscribe Now	U.S. FOREIGN POLICY Coping with Trump's unpredictability S.Narendra Vladimir Putin The first foot- prints of American President Donald Trump's foreign policy emerged in early April when 59 Tomahawk missiles hit Syrian president Assad's forces. Known for his unpredictable policy U-turns, President Trump claimed that' the missile strikes were in vital national security interest' ( ?), The missile strike was in response to the Syrian government's (alleged) use of chemical weapons against rebels. As a Republican candidate in the presidential election in 2016 Donald Trump had decried US involvement in conflicts abroad, including in West Asia. The fire works against Syrian government simultaneously exploded several of Trump's Donald Trump Trump had asserted that he would find ways to work with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on several fronts. A kind of modus operandi had been arrived at by both US and Moscow in the Syrian conflict although their objectives were different. By attacking Assad, solidly backed by Russia, and accusing the latter of complicity in the Syrian use of chemical weapons, Moscow and Washington relations have become frosty once again. This raises one more intriguing question. Was this sudden military action in Syria a clever ploy to distract attention from investigations into Russian spying during the 2016 presidential election in order to swing it in favour of Trump? His Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, formerly of Exxon Mobil has had close relations with the Russian President. Most commentators had assumed that Trump and Putin would work together in the fight against ISIS, and the issue of President Assad's removal was on the back burner. Rex Tillerson Not only this assumption has been belied, but it also puts a question mark over the future course of the fight against ISIS. Since 2014, President Putin had become a major player in the imbroglio of West Asia. The perception was that US was deliberately reducing itself to be irrelevant in the region. This had worried the long time allies of America such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Sunni Muslim countries. The American overtures to Iran under President Obama and his cold shouldering of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, had disturbed old equations among the regional powers. In fact, Saudi Arabia and Israel had come together against their common foe Iran. The Saudi kings have taken the lead in setting up a regional joint military force ( mostly from Sunni Muslim member countries) under the command of Pakistan's ex-army chief, Gen. Sherief. Chief General Raheel Sharif This move was to bolster not only the Saudi position in the region but also to fill the vacuum caused by American relative indifference to get involved in the regional conflicts. As a poll candidate Trump had declared that the US would demand from its military alliance partners in NATO ( Saudi Arabia is a military ally) and others to bear greater financial and other costs. As President Trump has changed his stand not only on the US commitment to NATO but has decried his predecessor's so-called policy of 'strategic patience', a reference to the Obama administration refusal to pull teht rigger at each and every provocation by adversaries. Mike Pence Vice President Pence visiting the tense border between north and south Korea in mid-April declared that if China was unable to rein in North Korea, the US would not hesitate to act decisively against Pyongyang's provocations. Without formally reversing his predecessors commitment not to put American boots in the conflict- ridden Afghansitan and Iraq, the number of American 'military advisers' a euphemism for troops, has been increased. Their role in beating back ISIS from Mosul was crucial. The latest deployment of 'mother of all bombs' for blowing up Taliban's seemingly impregnable underground tunnels in Afghanistan carries a definitive military and diplomatic message to the adversaries in the region (Iran) and elsewhere, including to North Korea with nuclear ambitions. This and the US administration's not so veiled threat of re-imposition of sanctions against Iran unfortunately have come on the eve of presidential elections in Iran, where the moderate leader President Rouhani is likely to face tough challenge by anti-west hardliners. Only silver -lining appearing amidst Trump's unpredictable foreign policy stance relating to West Asia is his refusal to endorse the Israeli government's proposal for building fresh housing estates in occupied Palestinian land on the West Bank. April also saw President Trump playing host at his golf course hotel to Chinese President Xi, another U-turn in policy. This meeting was being held against the backdrop of increasing tensions in the north Pacific region following North Korea's launch of missiles capable of carrying nuclear war heads and an announcement to conduct its 6th nuclear test. In a message of support to allies like Japan and South Korea, and a warning to Pyongyang, Trump had despatched US armada to the area. The month of April was also notable because President Trump completed his first 100 bumpy days in office on April 29th. The opinion surveys ,that had consistently rated him lower than any of his predecessors at that stage in office, suddenly improved in the wake of attack on President Assad. Xi Jinping If media accounts of the parleys with President Xi are correct, Trump and Xi mostly focused on ways to deal with North Korea's belligerence. In order to persuade China to use its influence on North Korea not to develop a nuclear weapon, President Trump ate his very widely reported pledge to name China a 'currency manipulator' and to impose a 45 % tariif on Chinese imports and other trade related penalties within the first 100 days in office. Bashar al-Assad Without any sign of embarrassment the President said : ' when China is working with us (on North Korea),why should I call them currency manipulators'. Here one spots an astute businessman deal –maker who opts for real-politik. As an aside, it needs to be noted that a few days before President Xi's travel to the US, the Chinese authorities had fasttracked clearances for several pending projects in the country belonging to Trump firms. The month of April was also notable because President Trump completed his first 100 bumpy days in office on April 29th. The opinion surveys ,that had consistently rated him lower than any of his predecessors at that stage in office, suddenly improved in the wake of attack on President Assad. Even the adversarial liberal US media approved of the President's action. The Washington- based online site Politico went so far as to suggest that Trump was on the way to win.