Amit Shah's pipedream !

tosh Kumar

It may not be soothing to the ears of Amit Shah, but the ground reality is that the Bharatiya Janata Party national president's 'Mission 11' to conquer Kerala in the general elections of 2019 will in all probability be a non-starter.

Amit Shah's optimism in Bhubaneswar appeared misplaced when the result of a Lok Sabha byelection in Malappuram, again in north Kerala, came out on April 17. Despite a well-oiled RSS controlled election machinery drumming up the achievements of the Modi government at the Centre and the usual Muslim bashing, the BJP could not muster many votes from the over 80,000 young voters, its strength going by the trend elsewhere, in the constituency.

Shah made public this ambitious plan to win at least 11 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state at the recently concluded national executive meeting of the party in Bhubaneswar where he also stressed on the need for the party to expand in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal other than Kerala. This stems from the realisation that the party may stand to lose some of the seats it won in the North riding the 'Modi wave' in 2014.
Since like any of his predecessors, Narendra Modi too would face the incumbency factor, the party has roughly placed the deficit as at around 120 which it hopes to make up in the South and the East. And Kerala is one state where the party is pinning its hopes ever since it managed to open its account in the state Assembly last May for the first time since the formation of the state in 1956.
It was precisely with this in mind that the party held a threeday national council meeting at Kozhikode in Muslim-dominated north Kerala last September.
Though the meeting was also meant to pay tribute to Hindutva ideologue Deendayal Upadhyaya who took over as the president of the erstwhile Bharatiya Jana Sangh in Kozhikode in 1967, just a year before his mysterious death, the real intention was to lay some sort of foundation for the party in this Left-leaning state. It is interesting that even Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent two days and addressed a public meeting.
This aside, Amit Shah's optimism in Bhubaneswar appeared misplaced when the result of a Lok Sabha by-election in Malappuram, again in north Kerala, came out on April 17.
Despite a well-oiled RSS controlled election machinery drumming up the achievements of the Modi government at the Centre and the usual Muslim bashing, the BJP could not muster many votes from the over 80,000 young voters, its strength going by the trend elsewhere, in the constituency.
In fact, the result is a big disappointment for the party which preferred to put up a local candidate instead of one of its national heavyweights.

Kummanan Rajasekhara Party candidate N Sreeprakash got only 7% vote compared to last time's 7.88%. While the party got a mere 970 votes more than in the Lok Sabha election, its votes reduced by 7,772 compared to the last Assembly elections just 11 months ago.
Even considering the fact that Malappuram is a Muslim League fortress much before Jawaharlal Nehru had described the party as a dead horse, the BJP could not garner much support in the three Assembly segments where Hindus have a large presence.
Clearly there was no consolidation of Hindu votes which the party was banking on, especially when the other two fronts – Congress-led United Democratic and CPM-led Left Democratic -- had put up Muslim candidates. There was nothing much to write home about for the party, exactly the reason why Amit Shah summoned the state leadership to Delhi immediately. Talk of a change in state leadership was in the air.
However, Kummanan Rajasekharan, the present president of the state unit, though very soft-spoken, is a hardcore RSS man and was handpicked by Shah to set things right in the state unit, so the possibility of a change was ruled out for the time being.
The fact is that without RSS there is no BJP in Kerala. Perhaps after Uttar Pradesh, Kerala has the highest number of RSS shakhas, over 5,000 going by the last count. Top BJP leaders in the state are said to be not too happy with RSS breathing down their necks. It was only during the last Assembly elections in 2016 that the party ventured out of this RSS cocoon by forming alliances with certain OBCs among the Hindus, especially the powerful Ezhavas.

Vellappally Natesaan For that, too, the credit should go to Vellappally Natesaan, general secretary of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), a powerful sociocultural organisation of the Ezhavas. It was Natesan who initiated the launch of a political outfit of the Ezhavas, Bharat Dharma Jana Sena, in late 2015 primarily to browbeat the two traditional fronts who were sharing power alternatively feeding on the 23% vote share of the Ezhavas.
Natesan, a maverick but shrewd businessman, predictably took his 'Nomad to Namboodiri' movement to the stables of BJP thereby leading to the formation of NDA, a third front till then non-existent, in Kerala just before the Assembly elections last year. It was thanks to the Ezhava vote bank and riding on the organisational strength of the RSS that NDA managed to raise its vote share to almost 15%.
Other than making lot of noise through some of its very vocal leaders, BJP per se has no organisational set-up in the state.

What Malappuram shows is that unlike in the North BJP will find it difficult to sell its hard Hindutva agenda in Kerala. There is no way BJP is going to win 11 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections from the state.

That is the reason why Amit Shah is now talking of building an NDA structure from panchayat to parliament. Much of its success depends on the reaction of the Congress and the CPM in the state who seem to be paranoid about the RSS bogey. Particularly the CPM, which instead of taking on the RSS at an ideological level is resorting to violence to curb its activities, especially in north Kerala. Of late, much to the amusement of the cadre and co-travellers alike, CPM is pedalling soft Hindutva by organising Sobha yatras, Krishna jayanthis and trying to capture temple organising committees. BJP might capitalise on this to a certain extent, but not to the level Amit Shah is hoping to. What Malappuram shows is that, unlike in the North, BJP will find it difficult to sell its hard Hindutva agenda in Kerala. There is no way the BJP is going to win 11 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections from the state. At best it could improve its vote percentage. But it may not be the case with the Assembly elections of 2021. Till then Amit Shah's grand plans to capture Kerala will remain a pipe dream.



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Despite a well-oiled RSS controlled election machinery drumming up the achievements of the Modi government at the Centre and the usual Muslim bashing, the BJP could not muster many votes from the over 80,000 young voters, its strength going by the trend elsewhere, in the constituency. Shah made public this ambitious plan to win at least 11 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state at the recently concluded national executive meeting of the party in Bhubaneswar where he also stressed on the need for the party to expand in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal other than Kerala. This stems from the realisation that the party may stand to lose some of the seats it won in the North riding the 'Modi wave' in 2014. Since like any of his predecessors, Narendra Modi too would face the incumbency factor, the party has roughly placed the deficit as at around 120 which it hopes to make up in the South and the East. And Kerala is one state where the party is pinning its hopes ever since it managed to open its account in the state Assembly last May for the first time since the formation of the state in 1956. It was precisely with this in mind that the party held a threeday national council meeting at Kozhikode in Muslim-dominated north Kerala last September. Though the meeting was also meant to pay tribute to Hindutva ideologue Deendayal Upadhyaya who took over as the president of the erstwhile Bharatiya Jana Sangh in Kozhikode in 1967, just a year before his mysterious death, the real intention was to lay some sort of foundation for the party in this Left-leaning state. It is interesting that even Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent two days and addressed a public meeting. This aside, Amit Shah's optimism in Bhubaneswar appeared misplaced when the result of a Lok Sabha by-election in Malappuram, again in north Kerala, came out on April 17. Despite a well-oiled RSS controlled election machinery drumming up the achievements of the Modi government at the Centre and the usual Muslim bashing, the BJP could not muster many votes from the over 80,000 young voters, its strength going by the trend elsewhere, in the constituency. In fact, the result is a big disappointment for the party which preferred to put up a local candidate instead of one of its national heavyweights. Kummanan Rajasekhara Party candidate N Sreeprakash got only 7% vote compared to last time's 7.88%. While the party got a mere 970 votes more than in the Lok Sabha election, its votes reduced by 7,772 compared to the last Assembly elections just 11 months ago. Even considering the fact that Malappuram is a Muslim League fortress much before Jawaharlal Nehru had described the party as a dead horse, the BJP could not garner much support in the three Assembly segments where Hindus have a large presence. Clearly there was no consolidation of Hindu votes which the party was banking on, especially when the other two fronts – Congress-led United Democratic and CPM-led Left Democratic -- had put up Muslim candidates. There was nothing much to write home about for the party, exactly the reason why Amit Shah summoned the state leadership to Delhi immediately. Talk of a change in state leadership was in the air. However, Kummanan Rajasekharan, the present president of the state unit, though very soft-spoken, is a hardcore RSS man and was handpicked by Shah to set things right in the state unit, so the possibility of a change was ruled out for the time being. The fact is that without RSS there is no BJP in Kerala. Perhaps after Uttar Pradesh, Kerala has the highest number of RSS shakhas, over 5,000 going by the last count. Top BJP leaders in the state are said to be not too happy with RSS breathing down their necks. It was only during the last Assembly elections in 2016 that the party ventured out of this RSS cocoon by forming alliances with certain OBCs among the Hindus, especially the powerful Ezhavas. Vellappally Natesaan For that, too, the credit should go to Vellappally Natesaan, general secretary of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), a powerful sociocultural organisation of the Ezhavas. It was Natesan who initiated the launch of a political outfit of the Ezhavas, Bharat Dharma Jana Sena, in late 2015 primarily to browbeat the two traditional fronts who were sharing power alternatively feeding on the 23% vote share of the Ezhavas. Natesan, a maverick but shrewd businessman, predictably took his 'Nomad to Namboodiri' movement to the stables of BJP thereby leading to the formation of NDA, a third front till then non-existent, in Kerala just before the Assembly elections last year. It was thanks to the Ezhava vote bank and riding on the organisational strength of the RSS that NDA managed to raise its vote share to almost 15%. Other than making lot of noise through some of its very vocal leaders, BJP per se has no organisational set-up in the state. What Malappuram shows is that unlike in the North BJP will find it difficult to sell its hard Hindutva agenda in Kerala. There is no way BJP is going to win 11 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections from the state. That is the reason why Amit Shah is now talking of building an NDA structure from panchayat to parliament. Much of its success depends on the reaction of the Congress and the CPM in the state who seem to be paranoid about the RSS bogey. Particularly the CPM, which instead of taking on the RSS at an ideological level is resorting to violence to curb its activities, especially in north Kerala. Of late, much to the amusement of the cadre and co-travellers alike, CPM is pedalling soft Hindutva by organising Sobha yatras, Krishna jayanthis and trying to capture temple organising committees. BJP might capitalise on this to a certain extent, but not to the level Amit Shah is hoping to. What Malappuram shows is that, unlike in the North, BJP will find it difficult to sell its hard Hindutva agenda in Kerala. There is no way the BJP is going to win 11 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections from the state. At best it could improve its vote percentage. But it may not be the case with the Assembly elections of 2021. Till then Amit Shah's grand plans to capture Kerala will remain a pipe dream.