Gaining clout with cash
Malladi Rama Rao
For Chinese President Xi
Jinping small is not
beautiful. He is thinking
big. A manifestation of
the new Chinese world
order is multibilliondollar
"One Belt, One Road" (OBOR)
initiative linking the old Silk Road
with Central Asia, West Asia, Europe
and Africa.
Belt in OBOR stands for land
linkage. Road represents sea route.
The plan was unveiled some three
years ago to build ports, railways,
airports and power plants virtually
in every corner of the world.
Well, China has deep pockets. It
can afford to splurge Yuans to win
friends and to undertake a 21st century Star Trek with "where no
man has gone before" monologue.
At the two-day OBOR summit in
Beijing (May 14-15, 2017) there was
good response to President Xi's call
for "Globalization 2.0." He has
invoked long forgotten Panchsheel,
declared outright rejection of
protectionism, and pledged $124
billion for his new Silk Road. To the great relief of the cash strapped
nations!
Nawaz Sharif congratulates Xi on OBOR summit
The US sent a low key
representation to the summit
attended by 29 heads of State and
Governments, and some 1,200
delegates from 110 countries.
Russia was represented by
President Putin himself. Japan,
France, Germany and UK marked
their presence.
Singapore was not invited. India
was invited but chose not to attend.
From India's neighbourhood, Sri
Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and
Myanmar joined the Chinese forum
but Bhutan did not. Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif–led an all-party
delegation from Pakistan, which is
the first beneficiary of OBOR.
What are the takeaways from the
meet?
One, Beijing has promised to
import US$2 trillion worth of
products from belt and road
countries in the next five years.Two
Chinese government will infuse
another US $14.5 billion into the Silk
Road Fund. It will also provide 60
billion Yuan in the next three years
for poverty alleviation in developing
countries along the new Silk Road.In
addition the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of
China will chip in with 380 billion
Yuan worth special lending
schemes.
As some Sinologists point out,
President Xi's ambition of propelling
China to the centre stage of global
power game marks "a sharp
departure" from the approach of his
predecessors, who had strictly
adhered to Deng Xiaoping's tenet to
"hide our capabilities and bide our
time, never try to take the lead". Xi's
efforts have coincided with an antiglobalisation
wave in most of the
western world.
If all the "Belt and Road"-pledged
money is spent, it would dwarf the
U.S.-led Marshall Plan that helped
western Europe rebuild after World
War II, according to management
consultancy firm, Mc Kinsey.
Evidently, OBOR will help fill a good
share of the massive global
infrastructure vacuum.
Yet, the United States has showed
"little interest", Japan has upped the
speed of "its own regional
connectivity plans", and the
European Union has given the
initiative "a lukewarm" welcome.
Only Russia is backing China to the
hilt with its gaze fixed on regional
security and trade.
Pak, a vasal State
Sceptics are growing, well, even in
Pakistan, which considers that its
friendship with China is "higher than
mountains, deeper than the ocean,
stronger than steel and sweeter
than honey". Karachi's sedate
English daily, Dawn, has dug out
hither to undisclosed details on
CPEC - China Pakistan Economic
Corridor flagship project under
OBOR.
The disclosures show that
Pakistan will be fully subjugated by
China under the current terms and
conditions of the $ 62 billion 15-year
project. It will facilitate visa free
travel for Chinese to Pakistan.
Instead of transforming Pak
economy the corridor may wreck its
finances and societal structure making Pakistan a vassal state.
Under the plan, thousands of
acres will be leased out to Chinese
to set up "demonstration projects"
in areas ranging from seedvarieties
to irrigation technology. Such
projects will end up as Chinese
enclaves where local laws are not
allowed, going by experience worldwide.
Also planned is a system of 24x7
surveillance in cities like Peshawar
and Karachi. A national fibre optic
backbone will be built across
The disclosures show that
Pakistan will be fully
subjugated by China under
the current terms and
conditions of the $ 62
billion 15-year project. It
will facilitate visa free
travel for Chinese to
Pakistan. Instead of
transforming the Pak
economy, the corridor
may wreck its finances and
societal structure making
Pakistan a vassal state.
Khunjerab Pass in Xinjinag (Western
China) to Gwadar (Balochistan) for
internet, and terrestrial distribution
of TV broadcasts. This would mean
more "dissemination of Chinese
culture".
Backdrop entry
In short, CPEC will facilitate the
backdoor entry of new East India
Company into Pakistan. More than
this what has raised the Pakistani
hackles is the suggestion of China's
envoy to Delhi, Luo Zhaohui, that
Beijing could "rename" China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor to
acknowledge India's sovereignty
concerns. In a speech on 05 May, he
also said Beijing "supported a
settlement of Kashmir dispute
through bilateral negotiation". Islamabad was not pleased. And
China quickly made Luo's remarks
disappear from the transcript of his
speech posted on the embassy's
website.
This has not prevented Dawn and
other Pakistani publications from
seeing red-lines.
Said Dawn editorially: "Luo's
comments are a warning against
giddy notions inside Pakistan that
CPEC has solidified Pakistan as its
greatest, and possibly only, ally in
the South Asia region. With a simple
but frank phrase, 'China first', Luo
demolished not just expectations
that China will automatically side
with Pakistan in its disputes with
India but also drove a stake through
hyperbolic assertions that CPEC and
Pakistan's ties with China will help
achieve a fair and just settlement on
Kashmir. Indeed, policy makers here
should be thankful to Luo and his
superiors in Beijing for their clarity
— and for offering Pakistan a
template to follow."
Signal to Delhi
Hu Shishang
Pakistani concerns are also
aggravated by the not so hidden
willingness of Beijing to keep the
OBOR door open for India. The
absence of Gilgit-Baltistan Chief
Minister in Nawaz Sharif's
delegation (it included Chief
Ministers of four other provinces)
appeared as an engineered signal to
New Delhi.
Interestingly, this did not stop
China from going ahead with its plans for the Bhasha dam project
near Gilgit.
"The government head in Gilgit-
Baltistan did not come for technical
reasons. But China is also
conveying a subtle message that it
recognises India's concerns on the
Kashmir issue", Hu Shishang,
director of the government-run
Institute of South and South East
Asian Affairs told Times of India.
He added that it would be
"perfectly alright" if India wants to take its own time to decide, and
prefers to join the Belt and Road
programme at "a later date".
These ifs and buts
notwithstanding, will President Xi
realise the new China dream in
his term? Beijing is not giving
loans cheaply as the experience
of Pakistan, Sri Lanka and a host
of African nations' show. This
flip-side itself puts breaks on the clout that comes from OBOR.
So much so there is no reason to
worry about a Chinese juggernaut.
Also by the fact that "the top-down,
autocratic nature of the belt and
road plan and China's selfinterested
structuring of the
projects mean that it is likely to fall
short of its aims," as the
Washington Post said editorially
on 16 May.