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CRUCIAL UP POLL
Will Rahul Gandhi make it?
Sushri Behen Kuwari Mayawati ji
(as she is respectfully addressed
by her camp followers) wants to
be the Chief Minister of Uttar
Pradesh again, and she wants the mantle
to be presented to her as a birthday gift.
The expensive electoral gift is expected
from a grateful people who had voted her
to power five years ago and have tasted
the fruit of atti utsahvardak (extremely
encouraging) and behetreen (superb)
performance of her government.
Mayawati’s birthday is on January 15;
about the time when the campaign to
elect the next government is likely to be
in full swing.
Mayawati’s expectations from her
supporters have always been a tad on the
high side. Last year, she was “presented”
with a mammoth garland made
exclusively from 1000-rupee currency
notes. Earlier, a ‘collection’ drive for her
birthday gift led to the killing of an
engineer who could not cough up the
required ‘contribution.’ But despite the
controversies and the numerous crowns
of gold and silver gifted to her on various
occasions by her ‘enthusiastic’
supporters, Mayawati wants yet another
gift – perhaps the most expensive ever –
reelection for another term and
thereafter a Dalit government at the
Centre in 2014.
Like in 2007, most political observers scoff at her blatant ambition for power. A recent survey by a television channel has supported their claim that anti incumbency factors will drive down Mayawati’s 208 out of 403 majority to about half. Samajwadi Party’s resurgence and Rahul Gandhi- led Congress will bring her numbers down to about 100-plus and she will have to contend with the second spot. Pollsters of the channel have claimed after a wide survey that Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party will emerge as the single largest party. The Congress will be placed third, followed by the BJP. The 72-district strong state of Uttar Pradesh is a gargantuan jigsaw whose numerous pieces never fall in place till the last vote is counted. Five years ago, pollsters had confidently predicted a hung assembly with minor parties playing a crucial role in government formation. Various permutation and combinations had been speculated upon. But all the analysis and field reports came to a naught when the final tally was announced --- Mayawati had secured a majority on her own steam! However, the one correct assessment which all pollsters made was Mulayam Singh Yadav will not lead a majority in the Vidhan Sabha. Law and order issues in the state were said to have taken the sheen off his governance. Political pundits are at it once again charting the prospects for CM Mayawati and they are confident she will not form the next government. Alleged corruption in government will drive the anti incumbency factor to ensure her defeat. Perhaps at the end of the poll process,
it will be as simple as anti incumbency
with the SP and the Congress reaping a
rich harvest of votes. Or it may be as
complicated as the pollsters have
concluded – a government led by SP and
supported by the Congress with a few
sundry players thrown in for a working
majority. It can be a tricky coalition but,
according to early surveys, it’s on the
cards.
Corruption – eating- intodevelopment is the public issue in the 2012 election. Rahul Gandhi upped the ante on the BSP leadership siphoning off development funds to line their own pockets by grandly announcing the elephant (BSP’s party symbol) does not eat grass but money. In rallies across central and eastern UP, Rahul Gandhi has made impassioned appeals to voters to cast away the ruling party as it had failed to ensure development and employment in the state. UP wallahs, he told one audience, had become like beggars who had to seek a livelihood outside their state. Rahul Gandhi has pulled no punches in blaming the Mayawati government for the scams in various development schemes and harped on the bright future which the Congress can secure for the youth of the state. He has visited villages and stayed overnight with poor families to emphasize his concern for the deprived.
Rahul Gandhi’s strategy in UP is to
contrast his style of interaction with that
of Mayawati. He wants to be seen as one
of them, “as a soldier of the cause of the
poor and the neglected who can live and
work with you.” The personal bonding at
the micro level and the message it
communicates to the people at large, says
a Congress leader, will sharply contrast
with Mayawati’s ivory tower existence
and put the party into an advantageous
position.
The first phase of poll surveys, says he, has already pitch forked the Congress from a bare 20 assembly seats to about 80. This is a huge gain and as the election campaign gets hotter, Rahul’s charisma will put the party in a commanding position. “Rahulji is our trump card,” says Rita Bahuguna Joshi, President, UP Congress Committee, “He has already galvanized the Congress cadre and people see us now with a lot of hope.” There is little doubt that the Congress is indeed an active force in these elections. Rahul Gandhi’s concentration on far flung districts and issues which concern the neglected and the marginalized has caused a bit of the Congress nip in the electoral air. “The Congress could have positioned Rahul as a chief ministerial candidate directly and pitted him against Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav,” says a politician observer, “The party can still do so, and, if it does, electoral gains for the Congress could be significant and surprising. Rahul’s own statement at a rally recently that he sometimes feels like leaving Delhi and coming to work here is an indication that the party leadership is still mulling over the issue.” However, the Rahul factor is dogged with rampant divisions within the Congress State leadership. UPCC Chief Rita Bahuguna and CLP leader Pramod Tiwari can barely tolerate each other’s presence. The presence of ‘ outsiders’ like PL Punia, Beni Prasad Verma and even Digvijay Singh and the influence they wield on UP election policy is widely resented by a cadre that has grown up sucking up to Pramod Tiwari and his ilk. Tiwari himself is unsure of the role he is expected to play in the organization given the allegations he is soft towards both Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Bickering and even fisticuffs have therefore surfaced during Rahul Gandhi’s tours of UP in November- December, 2011. However, the winning card for the Congress is not corruption but castecommunity combinations. In the 2007 poll, Mayawati’s win was attributed not so much to the SP misrule but to the Dalit-Brahmin engineering. The combo ensured winnability of BSP candidates in many constituencies and as such other communities, including a section of the Muslims, pitched in to ensure their victory. The calculation of political pundits is that though Mayawati’s Dalit vote bank is still intact the Brahmins have been unhappy with her in the recent past. Without this combo, or even with a dent in it, BSP’s chances of coming back to power decline sharply. “In 2010,” they point out, “Mayawati took a U-turn on the Brahmin influence on her party by reasserting the Dalit agenda. As such, prominent pundits like SC Mishra were consigned to the backroom. But within a year, Mayawati has realized that she can’t do without them and they are back on the centre stage. The massive Brahmin rally organized last month is proof of Mayawati going back to the 2007 social engineering formula.” Rahul Gandhi, more than anyone else in state politics, realized that he has to aggressively woo and thereafter wean away two of the most prominent social groups in the state, viz. the Dalits and the Muslims, from the BSP and SP fold. The overnight stays in Dalit homes and unannounced stopovers were aimed at impacting the vote bank in a subconscious way. Rahul has followed up his gestures of bonhomie with the most deprived by claiming ownership of livelihood initiatives like NREGA, promises of more dole and the food security programme. As a visualized policy targeted at UP voters, it makes enormous sense since it directly places money and food at the doorstep of the electorate. Quite a few elections have been won by various parties in South India via promises of subsidized ration and other financial sops. Congress hopes cannot therefore be said to be unrealistic that the poor and the deprived from all communities, especially Dalits, will be lured to its fold. The Muslims constitute the other big vote bank for UP parties. Mulayam Singh Yadav forged a winning Yadav- Muslim combine in election after election since 1989. This section was largely the one which had traditionally favoured the Congress but post 1985 Ayodhya had drifted away from it. Mulayam Singh became their natural choice till his famous flip-flops on Kalyan Singh and Azam Khan.
The Muslim votes have been adrift
over the last three years or so. The
Congress harnessed them to some extent
during the last parliamentary poll and
came up with a fine performance at the
hustings. A repeat of the previous
showing and enlargement of its constituency is the keystone of the party’s
game plan in UP. Hence, the huge
financial package to weavers and the
announcement that Muslims will be given reservation.
Rahul Gandhi’s strategy in
UP is to contrast his style of
interaction with that of
Mayawati. He wants to be
seen as one of them, “as a
soldier of the cause of the
poor and the neglected who
can live and work with you.”
The personal bonding at the
micro level and the message
it communicates to the
people at large, says a
Congress leader, will sharply
contrast with Mayawati’s
ivory tower existence and
put the party into an
advantageous position.
The ruling BSP realizes that the
ground is being cut from under its feet
and has come out in support of the
reservation demand. However, the
initiative has been grabbed by Rahul
Gandhi and its so-called ally, the SP, is
just a seconder of the proposal. With only
the Congress in a position to implement
these proposals, whether on economic
sops or reservation, the voter may have to
make a hard choice between Rahul, on
one side, and Mayawati-Mulayam, on the
other. It may not want to fritter away the
livelihood issues for sake of only castebased
voting.
The Congress game plan is therefore well and truly set and the scion of the Gandhi family has rolled up his sleeves for a tough contest. However, the implementation of the plan in terms of getting the ballot stamped in his favour is yet another thing. Crowds at his rallies have varied and have not been as enthusiastic about him as it would be expected. Plus, the divisions in the local leadership may well throw a spanner in the well-laid out plans of Mr Rahul Gandhi. | |||||||
Chief Minister Mayawati at a rally in state-capital Lucknow
Lok Janshakti Party President Ram Vilas Paswan, Samajwadi Party chief
Mulayam Singh Yadav and other MPs during a dharna