A vote against Modi

N D Sharma

The anti-BJP drift was visible in all the five States where Assembly elections were held in November-December.
While the electorate threw away the BJP governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP could barely win one seat each in Telangana and Mizoram in spite of having put forward its candidates in almost all the constituencies in the two States.
Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two major “achievements” did not figure prominently in the high-pitched campaigns, these two seemed to have considerably influenced the mind of the voters, particularly in the three Hindi heartland States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The scars created by the demonetisation on the middle and lower classes have not healed so far.

The pro and antireservation agitations seemed to have considerably influenced the voters’ choice in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The organisations representing Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes were in a militant mood after the Supreme Court had diluted the arrest provisions of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act and the Central government continued dilly-dallying to undo it.

Ajit Jogi Similarly, the GST continues to be a sore point with the middle rung traders. Apparently aware of this the party in the three States did not seek the vote in the name of Narendra Modi but in the names of their chief ministers, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh. In the full page newspaper advertisements also, the photos of the chief ministers were displayed prominently while a small photo of Narendra Modi was tucked behind. According to an IndiaSpend analysis of electoral data, the BJP lost more than 70 per cent of the Assembly constituencies where Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned in the five States.

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah Congress, though, did not appear as the most favourite party except in Chhattisgarh where it bagged 68 seats in a House of 90 reducing the BJP strength to a mere 15. In the outgoing House the BJP had 49 members and the Congress 39. After breaking away from the Congress, its former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi had formed his own party called Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) and had entered into a pre-poll alliance with Mayawati’s

Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in a bid to emerge as the alternative to the BJP and the Congress. But the electorate decisively shattered his dream and reposed their faith in the Congress,packing up JCC with 5 and BSP with 2 seats.

Mayawati In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Congress benefited for lack of a viable alternative to the BJP and the Congress. The electorate, therefore, having made up their minds to oust the BJP government, voted for the Congress somewhat reluctantly. In both States, the Congress failed to get the clear majority. In Madhya Pradesh, its tally stopped at 114 seats in a House of 230. The BJP won in 109 constituencies. As many as 120 parties were in the fray in Madhya Pradesh. Only two of them could taste victory: Bahujan Samaj Party got two seats and Samajwadi Party was able to win one seat. Four independents also got through. These seven members lent their support to the Congress, raising the strength of the alliance to 121 and, thus, allowing the Congress to form the government. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had fielded 208 candidates in Madhya Pradesh. All but one lost their deposits, including State head of AAP and the party’s chief ministerial candidate Alok Agrawal. AAP’s national convener Arvind Kejriwal did not campaign in the State even for once.

While in the three States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the farm distress played an important role in ousting the ruling BJP, in Mizoram, the only State in the north-east that went to the polls, prohibition also played a crucial role in replacing the Congress with the Mizo National Front (MNF) as the ruling party.

Alok Agrawal It was ironic that the BJP received slightly more votes in Madhya Pradesh than the Congress but the Congress got more seats. The BJP received 41 per cent (1, 56, 42,980 votes) of the total votes cast while the share of the Congress was 40.9 per cent (1, 55, 95,153 votes). Besides, in as many as 22 constituencies, the votes cast for NOTA (none of the above) exceeded the victory margins of the winning candidates.
The pro and anti-reservation agitations seemed to have considerably influenced the voters’ choice in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The organisations representing Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes were in a militant mood after the Supreme Court had diluted the arrest provisions of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act and the Central government continued dilly-dallying to undo it. Agitations were held in the two States, more violent in Madhya Pradesh.

There has been “controlled prohibition” in Mizoram since 2014 – which means that the people, local or outsiders, need a permit to buy alcohol. There are nearly 50 authorised liquor shops. The problem was created by the sale of alcohol in black market which developed a market of spurious liquor resulting in deaths. One of the election promises of the Mizo National Front (MNF) was to bring back total prohibition if voted to power.

When the Central government restored the old draconian provision through Parliament, it was the turn of the upper castes to show their resentment. A new organisation of general category, OBC and minority government employees was born under the name of Sapaks in Madhya Pradesh. It held demonstrations in several parts of the State in protest against the restoration of the stringent provision in the Act by the Central government.
As the elections approached, Sapaks got itself registered as a political party with the Election Commission and fielded 110 candidates in the State. It did not win even a single seat but inflicted damage on the two main parties, more so on the BJP. Raghunandan Sharma, a veteran BJP leader and Rajya Sabha member, estimates that the BJP lost 15 to 20 seats because of the anger of the anti-reservationists.
In Rajasthan, too, the Congress reached near-majority point, getting 99 seats in a House of 200. The election for one constituency was countermanded following the death of a BSP candidate. In 2013, the Congress had won a mere 21 seats. The BJP had won 163 seats in the last election. This time its tally came down to 73, a loss of 90 seats.
BSP got 6 seats, Rashtriya Lok Tantrik Party (RLTP) 3, CPI (M) and Bharatiya Tribal Party 2 each, and Rashtriya Lok Dal 1. As many as 13 independents also got through. Of the 59 SC/ST seats, the BJP could get only 21 while it had won in 50 constituencies in 2013.
It got 12 seats reserved for SCs (as against 32 in 2013) and 9 ST seats while it was successful in 18 ST constituencies in the last election. Rashtriya Lok Tantrik Party (RLTP) got two seats reserved for SCs and one was bagged by an independent. Two ST seats went to Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) and two were won by independents. Most of the SC/ST seats were won by the Congress.
In 2013, the Congress could not win a single SC seat while 32 were won by the BJP and one each by the National People’s Party (NPP) and National Unionist Zamindara Party (NUZP). Of the ST seats, the Congress had won a mere 4 as against 18 by the BJP; two seats were won by the NPP and one by an independent candidate.
As the ruling BJP promised free electricity to farmers as well as to double farmers’ income, the Congress promised to usher in “Kisan Raj”. Not only in Rajasthan, but in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh also, the Congress promised to waive farmers’ loans within ten days of the formation of the Congress government.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi went to the extent of declaring that if the Congress government was formed and it did not waive the farmers’ loans within ten days, the chief minister would be changed. This seemed to have clicked with the farming community which forms a substantial segment of the electorate in the three States.
While in the three States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the farm distress played an important role in ousting the ruling BJP, in Mizoram, the only State in the north-east that went to the polls, prohibition also played a crucial role in replacing the Congress with the Mizo National Front (MNF) as the ruling party.
There has been “controlled prohibition” in Mizoram since 2014 – which means that the people, local or outsiders, need a permit to buy alcohol. There are nearly 50 authorised liquor shops. The problem was created by the sale of alcohol in black market which developed a market of spurious liquor resulting in deaths. One of the election promises of the Mizo National Front (MNF) was to bring back total prohibition if voted to power.

One reason cited for BJP’s failure to impress the voters in Mizoram was cited its failure to keep its promise to protect the rights of indigenous tribes in the north-east.

In a House of 40, the MNF got twothirds majority with 26 seats while Congress won only in five constituencies. The BJP did not forge a pre-poll alliance. BJP general secretary in charge of north-east Ram Madhav had announced much ahead of the polling day: “we are willing to forge an alliance with like-minded non- Congress parties after the elections.”
It had fielded 39 candidates and had started talks with regional outfits even before the election process was completed, but could win only one seat in the Chakma-dominated constituency of Tuichawng.
Chakmas migrated from Bangladesh over a long period ahead of Mizoram being made a State in 1986. Young Mizo Association (YMA), an influential tribal organisation of Mizoram, has been demanding scrapping of Chakma Autonomous District Council (CADC).
Thousands of protestors had, under the aegis of YMA, demonstrated at Aizawl alleging that Mizoram was increasingly becoming a safe haven for the ‘illegal Bangladeshi immigrants’ and are now living, most of them, in refugee camps in Tripura, following the trouble with local ethnic groups of Mizoram.
(The Election Commission enrols them as voters of Mizoram and makes special arrangements for their voting.) The remaining 8 seats were won by independent candidates.

Zoramthanga One reason cited for the BJP’s failure to impress the voters in Mizoram was cited its failure to keep its promise to protect the rights of indigenous tribes in the north-east. The north-east has for decades been haunted by the illegal influx from the neighbouring countries and the BJP has had successes in the north-east States on its pre-poll promises of stopping this influx but it did not take any concrete step towards fulfilling this promise.
Kick-starting his party’s election campaign, BJP president Amit Shah declared that Mizoram would celebrate the next Christmas under the BJP government. Before proceeding to Aizawl to launch the BJP’s election campaign, Shah visited the Kamakhya temple in Guwahati.
Then he wrote on his official Twitter handle: “Blessed to have prayed at the Maa Kamakhya devi shaktipeeth in Guwahati today on Durga Ashtami.: Interestingly, the MNF is a constituent of the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) but both MNF and BJP contested the election separately. MNF president Zoramthanga, who was sworn in as the Chief Minister for the third time, was quoted as having observed: “Due to Christianity and traditional ethnic conviction, the Mizos are very closeknit and deep-bonding society.
A party like BJP has no space in such a society. My government would make all-out efforts to further develop the Mizo society and the infrastructure of the State, especially the roads.”



		EDITOR'S MAIL EDITOR'S COMMENT SAFFRON FALL SIGNALS FOR TELANGANA SAFFRON FALL FRANKLY SPEAKING LOK SABHA ELECTIONS STATE OF ECONOMY REALPOLITIK AGRARIAN DISTRESS BHOPAL GAS TRAGEDY PAST IN THE PRESENT MUMBAI TERROR ATTACK GLOBAL AFFAIRS KARTARPUR CORRIDOR HITS & MISSES BOOK BAZAAR SIGNS OF THE TIMES BOOK BAZAAR POLLUTION FALLOUT FOREST MANAGEMENT PATRIARCHAL BIAS IRANIAN FILMS A MIRROR TO SOCIETY ON RECORD ART OF LIVING Issue:January' 2018 Subscribe Now	SAFFRON FALL A vote against Modi N D Sharma The anti-BJP drift was visible in all the five States where Assembly elections were held in November-December. While the electorate threw away the BJP governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP could barely win one seat each in Telangana and Mizoram in spite of having put forward its candidates in almost all the constituencies in the two States. Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two major “achievements” did not figure prominently in the high-pitched campaigns, these two seemed to have considerably influenced the mind of the voters, particularly in the three Hindi heartland States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The scars created by the demonetisation on the middle and lower classes have not healed so far. The pro and antireservation agitations seemed to have considerably influenced the voters’ choice in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The organisations representing Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes were in a militant mood after the Supreme Court had diluted the arrest provisions of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act and the Central government continued dilly-dallying to undo it. Ajit Jogi Similarly, the GST continues to be a sore point with the middle rung traders. Apparently aware of this the party in the three States did not seek the vote in the name of Narendra Modi but in the names of their chief ministers, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh. In the full page newspaper advertisements also, the photos of the chief ministers were displayed prominently while a small photo of Narendra Modi was tucked behind. According to an IndiaSpend analysis of electoral data, the BJP lost more than 70 per cent of the Assembly constituencies where Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned in the five States. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah Congress, though, did not appear as the most favourite party except in Chhattisgarh where it bagged 68 seats in a House of 90 reducing the BJP strength to a mere 15. In the outgoing House the BJP had 49 members and the Congress 39. After breaking away from the Congress, its former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi had formed his own party called Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) and had entered into a pre-poll alliance with Mayawati’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in a bid to emerge as the alternative to the BJP and the Congress. But the electorate decisively shattered his dream and reposed their faith in the Congress,packing up JCC with 5 and BSP with 2 seats. Mayawati In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Congress benefited for lack of a viable alternative to the BJP and the Congress. The electorate, therefore, having made up their minds to oust the BJP government, voted for the Congress somewhat reluctantly. In both States, the Congress failed to get the clear majority. In Madhya Pradesh, its tally stopped at 114 seats in a House of 230. The BJP won in 109 constituencies. As many as 120 parties were in the fray in Madhya Pradesh. Only two of them could taste victory: Bahujan Samaj Party got two seats and Samajwadi Party was able to win one seat. Four independents also got through. These seven members lent their support to the Congress, raising the strength of the alliance to 121 and, thus, allowing the Congress to form the government. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had fielded 208 candidates in Madhya Pradesh. All but one lost their deposits, including State head of AAP and the party’s chief ministerial candidate Alok Agrawal. AAP’s national convener Arvind Kejriwal did not campaign in the State even for once. While in the three States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the farm distress played an important role in ousting the ruling BJP, in Mizoram, the only State in the north-east that went to the polls, prohibition also played a crucial role in replacing the Congress with the Mizo National Front (MNF) as the ruling party. Alok Agrawal It was ironic that the BJP received slightly more votes in Madhya Pradesh than the Congress but the Congress got more seats. The BJP received 41 per cent (1, 56, 42,980 votes) of the total votes cast while the share of the Congress was 40.9 per cent (1, 55, 95,153 votes). Besides, in as many as 22 constituencies, the votes cast for NOTA (none of the above) exceeded the victory margins of the winning candidates. The pro and anti-reservation agitations seemed to have considerably influenced the voters’ choice in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The organisations representing Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes were in a militant mood after the Supreme Court had diluted the arrest provisions of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act and the Central government continued dilly-dallying to undo it. Agitations were held in the two States, more violent in Madhya Pradesh. There has been “controlled prohibition” in Mizoram since 2014 – which means that the people, local or outsiders, need a permit to buy alcohol. There are nearly 50 authorised liquor shops. The problem was created by the sale of alcohol in black market which developed a market of spurious liquor resulting in deaths. One of the election promises of the Mizo National Front (MNF) was to bring back total prohibition if voted to power. When the Central government restored the old draconian provision through Parliament, it was the turn of the upper castes to show their resentment. A new organisation of general category, OBC and minority government employees was born under the name of Sapaks in Madhya Pradesh. It held demonstrations in several parts of the State in protest against the restoration of the stringent provision in the Act by the Central government. As the elections approached, Sapaks got itself registered as a political party with the Election Commission and fielded 110 candidates in the State. It did not win even a single seat but inflicted damage on the two main parties, more so on the BJP. Raghunandan Sharma, a veteran BJP leader and Rajya Sabha member, estimates that the BJP lost 15 to 20 seats because of the anger of the anti-reservationists. In Rajasthan, too, the Congress reached near-majority point, getting 99 seats in a House of 200. The election for one constituency was countermanded following the death of a BSP candidate. In 2013, the Congress had won a mere 21 seats. The BJP had won 163 seats in the last election. This time its tally came down to 73, a loss of 90 seats. BSP got 6 seats, Rashtriya Lok Tantrik Party (RLTP) 3, CPI (M) and Bharatiya Tribal Party 2 each, and Rashtriya Lok Dal 1. As many as 13 independents also got through. Of the 59 SC/ST seats, the BJP could get only 21 while it had won in 50 constituencies in 2013. It got 12 seats reserved for SCs (as against 32 in 2013) and 9 ST seats while it was successful in 18 ST constituencies in the last election. Rashtriya Lok Tantrik Party (RLTP) got two seats reserved for SCs and one was bagged by an independent. Two ST seats went to Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) and two were won by independents. Most of the SC/ST seats were won by the Congress. In 2013, the Congress could not win a single SC seat while 32 were won by the BJP and one each by the National People’s Party (NPP) and National Unionist Zamindara Party (NUZP). Of the ST seats, the Congress had won a mere 4 as against 18 by the BJP; two seats were won by the NPP and one by an independent candidate. As the ruling BJP promised free electricity to farmers as well as to double farmers’ income, the Congress promised to usher in “Kisan Raj”. Not only in Rajasthan, but in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh also, the Congress promised to waive farmers’ loans within ten days of the formation of the Congress government. Congress president Rahul Gandhi went to the extent of declaring that if the Congress government was formed and it did not waive the farmers’ loans within ten days, the chief minister would be changed. This seemed to have clicked with the farming community which forms a substantial segment of the electorate in the three States. While in the three States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the farm distress played an important role in ousting the ruling BJP, in Mizoram, the only State in the north-east that went to the polls, prohibition also played a crucial role in replacing the Congress with the Mizo National Front (MNF) as the ruling party. There has been “controlled prohibition” in Mizoram since 2014 – which means that the people, local or outsiders, need a permit to buy alcohol. There are nearly 50 authorised liquor shops. The problem was created by the sale of alcohol in black market which developed a market of spurious liquor resulting in deaths. One of the election promises of the Mizo National Front (MNF) was to bring back total prohibition if voted to power. One reason cited for BJP’s failure to impress the voters in Mizoram was cited its failure to keep its promise to protect the rights of indigenous tribes in the north-east. In a House of 40, the MNF got twothirds majority with 26 seats while Congress won only in five constituencies. The BJP did not forge a pre-poll alliance. BJP general secretary in charge of north-east Ram Madhav had announced much ahead of the polling day: “we are willing to forge an alliance with like-minded non- Congress parties after the elections.” It had fielded 39 candidates and had started talks with regional outfits even before the election process was completed, but could win only one seat in the Chakma-dominated constituency of Tuichawng. Chakmas migrated from Bangladesh over a long period ahead of Mizoram being made a State in 1986. Young Mizo Association (YMA), an influential tribal organisation of Mizoram, has been demanding scrapping of Chakma Autonomous District Council (CADC). Thousands of protestors had, under the aegis of YMA, demonstrated at Aizawl alleging that Mizoram was increasingly becoming a safe haven for the ‘illegal Bangladeshi immigrants’ and are now living, most of them, in refugee camps in Tripura, following the trouble with local ethnic groups of Mizoram. (The Election Commission enrols them as voters of Mizoram and makes special arrangements for their voting.) The remaining 8 seats were won by independent candidates. Zoramthanga One reason cited for the BJP’s failure to impress the voters in Mizoram was cited its failure to keep its promise to protect the rights of indigenous tribes in the north-east. The north-east has for decades been haunted by the illegal influx from the neighbouring countries and the BJP has had successes in the north-east States on its pre-poll promises of stopping this influx but it did not take any concrete step towards fulfilling this promise. Kick-starting his party’s election campaign, BJP president Amit Shah declared that Mizoram would celebrate the next Christmas under the BJP government. Before proceeding to Aizawl to launch the BJP’s election campaign, Shah visited the Kamakhya temple in Guwahati. Then he wrote on his official Twitter handle: “Blessed to have prayed at the Maa Kamakhya devi shaktipeeth in Guwahati today on Durga Ashtami.: Interestingly, the MNF is a constituent of the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) but both MNF and BJP contested the election separately. MNF president Zoramthanga, who was sworn in as the Chief Minister for the third time, was quoted as having observed: “Due to Christianity and traditional ethnic conviction, the Mizos are very closeknit and deep-bonding society. A party like BJP has no space in such a society. My government would make all-out efforts to further develop the Mizo society and the infrastructure of the State, especially the roads.”