Not a cakewalk for BJP
Mamtha Sharma from
Bengaluru
The BJP's wins in
Gujarat and Himachal
assembly elections
will inevitably have
their impact on the
forthcoming polls in
Karnataka where the party is
determined to wrest control from
the ruling Congress.
In the hope of adding to the tally
of 19 states under its fold, a
confident BJP is expected to go all out
to regain Karnataka which it had first
won in 2008..
Under a resurgent and more
confident Rahul Gandhi, however,
the Congress would see the two
results as encouraging, despite the
losses. Even though losing Himachal
Pradesh would definitely hurt, the
party's overall performance in
Gujarat would give it the much
needed confidence to try and retain
power in Karnataka. The southern
state is set to go to polls around May
2018.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah
While in Gujarat, the Congress
concentrated more on the alleged
failures of the BJP on the
demonetisation and GST fronts,
apart from seeking to exploit caste
differences, its task in Karnataka is
cut out. This is because its chief
minister, Siddaramaiah, has cleverly
set the agenda for the elections. If
anything, the BJP is only reacting to it.
Therefore, while the Congress
would term the contest in Karnataka
as one dominated purely by local
issues of development, the BJP would
need to think of something more
aggressive than the religious issues,
minority appeasement and
corruption of the ruling party, albeit
for a short while.
In fact, its development platform
under Narendra Modi which helped
the BJP in Gujarat may not gain much
traction in Karnataka where the ruling party has been quick to seize
on the advantages of its welfare
schemes. Importantly, the Congress
also has a lot going for it in the form
of the divide that it has engineered
within the Lingayat community over
the issue of minority status to it.
B S Yeddyurappa with BJP
President Amit Shah
This community, which accounts
for a near 17-18 per cent of the
state's six crore population, has
backed BJP's strongman B S Yeddyurappa in the past. A Lingayat
himself, Yeddyurappa showed his
power over the community when he
indirectly helped the Congress in
decimating the BJP in 2013, even if
unwittingly, after breaking away from
his parent party.
The newly formed Karnataka Janata Paksh under him split the
Lingayat votes in 2013 and ultimately
helped the Congress bag north
Karnataka which the community
dominates.
Keeping those developments in
mind, Siddaramaiah has now cleverly
sought to break the community's
unity again this time. He is
encouraging the Lingayats to seek a
minority status, in the process
spooking the Veerashaivas among
that community.
Within the community, the latter
are closer to the Hindus while the
Lingayats are followers of the social
reformer Basavanna who did not
believe in any idol worship.
Siddaramaiah has used his Lingayat
minister, M B Patil to do the needful.
A division in the Lingayat vote
once again this time, therefore, could
spell trouble for the BJP and
Yeddyurappa, in particular. It is
worthwhile remembering that in
2013 the BJP lost power after it
bagged only 40 assembly seats
,thanks to the split caused by the
desertion of Yeddyurappa .It must be
said that the latter too failed in that
his KJP managed only six seats but his
objective was realised in that he
caused the BJP to lose heavily.
This is not all. The BJP
could find it hard to corner
Siddaramaiah on another
front, especially his narrative
on development in the state
coupled with a slew of
welfare schemes that have
been launched .These would
give the BJP some tough
moments.Welfare schemes like provision
of free rice under the Anna Bhagya
programme, setting up of Indira
canteens which provide subsidised
breakfast and meals for under Rs
10 in the IT capital to the poor,
coupled with crop loan waiver for
the farmers and scholarships for
students, would be difficult to
beat, at least for the BJP. The
success of the Indira Canteens in
Bengaluru has allowed
Siddaramaiah to plan their
expansion across the state now.
Above all, his brazen appeasement
of the minorities by celebrating Tipu
Jayanti in addition to the demand for
a separate state flag ,not to mention
the support for Kannada ,the local
language over Hindi, have helped
Siddaramaiah set the agenda while
playing the regional card effectively.
Accordingly, while the Congress
would prefer to bank on its
achievements in the last five years, as
an opposition party, the BJP could at
best talk about the alleged murders
of right wing activists in the state and
the minority appeasement policy of
the Siddaramah government. The
failure of the Siddaramaiah
government to nab the killers of
journalist Gauri Lankesh could be
another issue on which the BJP might
want to dwell on.
Alongside, Karnataka has been
lucky for the Congress in that in
Siddaramaiah, it has a strong
leader. This was something that
the party lacked in Gujarat, at
least. To that extent, the party
would not find it difficult to be
aggressive while campaigning for
the polls. Despite the friction
within the Congress,
Siddaramaiah has managed to
have full control over it, thanks also to the support he enjoys from
Rahul.
In sharp contrast, the BJP in the
state is faction ridden. The
constant bickering between
Eashwarappa and Yeddyrurappa,
party's two senior most leaders is
not something that the central
leadership is unaware of. In fact,
Amit Shah had to do some plain
talking to force them to mend
fences, albeit temporarily.
Tipu Jayanti
Yet another problem that the BJP
faces in Karnataka relates to
Yeddyurappa himself. He had
become perhaps the first chief
minister in south at least who was
forced to resign before being jailed
for corruption. Even though he has
successfully warded off the charges,
the stigma remains, something that the ruling Congress would only be
too happy to exploit. In fact,
Siddaramaiah has been using this
stick to beat Yeddyuppa with every
time the latter talks about corruption
under Congress rule.
In comparison to Gujarat,
therefore, the BJP in Karnataka would
have to devise different strategies to
counter an aggressive Congress
which is banking on its welfare schemes and minority
appeasement to breast the
tape. Admittedly, Modi's
development plank would be
difficult for the state voters to
ignore, the fact is that 2018
assembly elections would
remain local polls. The issue
would, therefore, be specific
to Karnataka with national issues not
getting that much of weight.
For the national issues to gain
traction in Karnataka, all the
parties would have to wait for the
Lok Sabha polls in 2019. In the
meanwhile, the BJP may have little
choice but to fall back on its
charismatic leader,Narendra
Modi,to market the party in the
state. For the BJP, Modi alone
would become the X factor in
Karnataka as at 75, Yeddyurappa
hardly evokes any confidence
even though the party is fighting
elections under his leadership.
In the meanwhile though, the two
parties have already commenced
their campaign, going by the
different yatras that they are
conducting within the state.
Yeddyurappa started one a month
ago and is getting a good response in
the districts of north Karnataka.
Siddaramaiah launched one on 16
December and is ready to claim
equal success in terms of the
numbers that the party is attracting.
While the yatras in themselves
are strategies that are unique to
Karnataka, they have proved
helpful to both the parties,
evidenced by past experience.
Whether they prove beneficial this
time too, is something that would
need to be seen in the coming
days.
For now, the Gujarat and
Himachal experiences would
help the two contending parties
draw their own lessons and
plans. They would, however, do
well to keep in mind that
Karnataka has always voted
differently all along. This could
well force them to redraw their
strategies for the forthcoming
polls in 2018.