Just a new cap to an old bottle

Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa How much different Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa will be from Gen Raheel Sharif, whose three –year term ended in Nov end marking the first time in 20 years that a Pakistani Army chief has stepped down after a single term?
Well, it all depends on what the stars foretell for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who hopes to win his fourth mandate in 2018 with some help from all-weather friend China.
One thing is clear though. Bajwa was a dark horse in the race to lead the 55000 strong Pakistan Army till the last moment. What propelled him to the front line was his apolitical image. The same factor - distaste for politics- guided Nawaz Sharif's selection of Raheel Shari in Nov 2013. And the decision proved nearly costly in the end.
As Stratfor analysts point out, during his time at the head of Pakistan's army, Raheel Sharif demonstrated the military's political might, exploited the army's social media prowess, and wrested control over foreign policy from the civilian sector during 2014 protests.
So there is every possibility of history repeating itself once again to the dismay of Nawaz, because, as the saying goes, while most countries have an army, Pakistan's army has a country. And even when it is not formally in power, the Pakistani military wields tremendous influence as a kingmaker and its leaders are no less consequential to Pakistan's political scene. Compounding the equation is the presence of China factor.
Anyhow, it is naïve to expect Bajwa to alter the military's role in Pakistan. On his part, Nawaz has come to realise that what matters in Pakistan is not his choice as Prime Minister but the collective will of the army as articulated by GHQ Shura.

Frivolus talk

Raheel Sharif In sections of Indian media as also Pakistani media, there has been some frivolous talk about how Bajwa, unlike the rabidly anti-India, Raheel Sharif, could possibly facilitate a reconciliation between India and Pakistan. These opinions are not only naïve but also gravely fallacious.
To put it simply, the new chief is merely a new cap in the bottle of old wine. There will not, and cannot be, any change in the malevolent attitude of the Pakistan Army towards India and these talks of cease-fire are merely smokescreens to give Bajwa a breathing time to take control.
If anyone has had any doubt about what lays behind the smokescreen, the Nagrota attack would have come as a shock. The attack, as is now becoming clear, is part of the Pakistani strategy to keep India engaged in a low intensity but debilitating conflict along the Line of Control (LoC).
The torchbearer of this new game plan is General Qamar Javed Bajwa who comes to Rawalpindi GHQ with years of experience in fiddling with terrorism in Kashmir and keeping the LoC open for terrorists and conflict.
As a Corps commander and commander of the Forward Command Northern Areas (FCNA) Bajwa had dealt with the likes of Hafiz Saeed, Syed Salahuddin and Azhar Mehmood on a daily basis. He knows how useful these terrorist leaders are to the Pakistan Army and its strategic goal of hurting India. He is certainly not giving up this potent weapon.
Under his watch, rest assured, terrorists will continue to flourish and their infrastructure will expand, more close to the Indian border. With India responding with strong action to terrorist attacks, the new General is going to rely more heavily on the stable of terrorists the army has been protecting and sponsoring all these years.

Kashmir becons

The layout before him, as he sits on the chief's chair, is not difficult to see—on the west, the army has the Haqqani Network and other allied groups to bolster the chances of the Taliban holding ground in Afghanistan and on the east, the set of sponsored actors can challenge the Indian security forces now and then.

Weighing heavily in his calculations might be how his predecessor was humbled by the sudden display of covert offensive by the adversary in response to Uri terrorist attack. He also might have been acutely aware how his predecessor, who hoped to remain in the saddle for another term, lost his battle with the Indian surgical strike, and left with ignominy.

Common sense tells that to avoid such a turn of events, it is better not to repeat the same mistakes—in this case, sponsor terrorist attacks against India. But the Generals in Pakistan are not known to be paragons of this virtue and have followed what has been drilled into them from the day they join the military academy---to hate India.

Ashfaq Kayani Kashmir is another issue which General Bajwa is not going to keep aside; in fact it will be the top item on his list of things to do. His immediate two successors, Raheel Sharif and Ashfaq Kayani, could not do much in Kashmir or in Afghanistan, which, both had boasted, were in their control. Meddling too much in Afghanistan, General Bajwa would find out, attracted the attention of Washington where there is a new incumbent, not exactly enamoured by Pakistan or its Generals.
Therefore, it is towards the east, the new General would turn his attention to and it is so easy to fool the gullible in Pakistan with ``K`` word. All the Generals since 1947 have been dishing out the dream of getting Kashmir for Pakistan and almost all had a bloodied nose or tooth to hide. Not that General Bajwa would learn any lessons from such a sobering outcome of the army's misadventures.
Without doubt, the new General would up the ante in Kashmir, just to prove the point that he is better than others and to reaffirm the myth that it is the army alone, represented by its chief, which is the saviour of Pakistan. This is the only way he can live down his family links with the Ahmedias and present himself before the bar of Hafeez Saeeds, Maulana Masoods and Fazalur Rehmans.

King maker role

Nawaz Sharif Whatever might be the compulsions and calculations of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in selecting General Bajwa, he is more than ever likely to depend on this General for his political future. More so as he will use the Kashmir issue to win votes in the 2018 election.
Yet, post –elections the General and his GHQ Shura will have a key role in deciding who will be the next PM. It means the political class will be kow-towing to him, like it did during his predecessor's days, be it the Sharifs (already in the cloud over the Panama papers) and Imran Khan, or even the Bhuttos.
The short point is that there is no way, General Bajwa is going to fritter away the chance of playing God in Pakistan, for the next three years by keeping the terrorists locked away or extending the olive branch to the adversary. It is more likely that he would intensify instability both within and outside Pakistan. India must be extremely wary of this new General in Rawalpindi.

China factor

More than India, of course, it is China which has reasons to worry because it has bet a lot on Pakistani generals to see through its plans for reaching out to the Arabian Sea with a rail and road economic corridor from Kashgar in Xinjinag to Gwadar in Balochistan.

Xi Jinping The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a part of the new Silk Roads Chinese want to lay through Central, South and South East Asia under President Xi Jinping's ambitious 'One belt, one road' initiative. When completed the new Silk Roads will redefine the global geopolitics in the medium to long term.
The Army Chief led GHQ Shura, Nawaz Sharif and China have a vested interest to make CPEC a success story.
The Army sees the project as a perfect vehicle to win brownie points vis-à-vis Beijing since more than 10,000 Chinese engineers and workers are working in Pakistan. Already, the Army has raised a 12,000 –strong force to provide protection to the Chinese personnel.
China is translating its long-term strategic ties with Pakistan into an economic partnership as a part of a broader infrastructure push across Eurasia. So much so greater economic success for its Pakistani ally will act as a source of stability and help to de-radicalize society, according to Andrew Small, author of The China-Pakistan Axis. The Jury is out on this perception though.

Nawaz's bets

On his part, Nawaz is betting on the Beijing –financed energy projects – estimated at around ten – to redeem his 2013 poll pledge of reducing load shedding, which today lasts anywhere between 12 and 18 hours a day.

As Saeed Shah reported in The Wall St Journal (Dec 19, 2016), the Chinese projects could become a political issue. Already Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have kicked up a row complaining that Sharif's Punjab has scooped an unfair share of the projects. There are also environmental concerns and charges of corruption in CPEC projects.There is total absence of transparency.

Hence the question: Will electoral outcome in Pakistan significantly affect Chinese efforts in the country? Global Times, the Chinese official newspaper that focuses on international issues, has a ready answer.

"Beijing's efforts in the country (Pakistan) will likely remain stable throughout and after the election", the daily's in-house commentator, Hu Weijia wrote on Dec 20.

He went on to say: "Given the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia, China has little motivation to see a change in the status quo. No matter who takes the helm in Pakistan, the country is unlikely to abandon the joint efforts behind the CPEC or shut the door on Chinese investment which has significantly benefited its energy sector."

Blunt speak

The acting Chinese ambassador in Pakistan, Zhao Lijian is, however, more forthright in his take. He told a receptive audience at a seminar in Islamabad in early December that the criticism against CPEC projects is no more than disinformation.

Zhao Lijian "CPEC is working well. But there are some people who are maligning the project, which enjoys the support of most of the people of Pakistan," he said, and added "Some people are making false allegations". He also dismissed allegations of corruption saying, "This is all taxpayer's money. These are investment projects. How can we tolerate corruption or bribe."
The Chinese diplomats are not known for blunt speak. Their forte is quiet diplomacy. This is a clear signal China's role in the region in general and in Pakistan in particular may be about to fundamentally change.

As David Brewster, an Australian strategic expert, wrote in the most recent edition of the East Asia Forum Quarterly, 'Managing China', the Dragon has hitherto projected itself in Pakistan as a benevolent partner that does not 'meddle' in internal affairs.The CPEC involves many thousands of Chinese engineers and w o r k e r s building billions of dollars of infrastructure over thousands of kilometres of territory on a s c a l e far exceeding any previous C h i n e s e investments in Pakistan.
The corridor traverses the territories of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan. These are territories with long-running insurgencies or long histories of violent resistance to meddling foreigners. At least, until recently, China has been "surprisingly sanguine about these risks and its ability to rely on the Pakistan Army".In fact, Beijing has been pushing Islamabad to give the Pakistan Army a leading role—above that of any civilian authorities—in CPEC

South Block focus

But if the separatists or fundamentalist insurgents see benefit in attacking Chinese nationals and assets, the Pakistan Army Chief Gen Bajwa will be in for a difficult time.

Chinese security forces are said to be deployed in PoK to protect the Chinese workers. So much so it is not difficult to contemplate a growing Chinese security element in other Pakistani territories to the dismay of Pakistani army if they are unable to address the new threats given their traditional pre-occupations. Such development will mark a new phase in Sino-Pakistani relations, and herald the prospect of China's involvement in Pakistan's domestic political affairs. Put simply, there is no denying that

CPEC has the potential to enmesh China much more closely in Pakistan for reasons beyond just physical security, making it a key player in the country's internal political and security affairs.That is good for thought to the mandarins in South Block, whose focus in so far CPEC is concerned is thus far limited to PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan.



		EDITOR'S MAIL MATTERS OF PUBLIC POLICY NOTEBANDI DRAMA NOTEBANDI DRAMA FRANKLY SPEAKING POLL 2017 TAMIL NADU POLITICS TAMIL NADU POLITICS REALPOLITIK POLITICAL RESERVATION KASHMIR WATCH A HOLLOW RITUALRY ENVIRONMENTAL FALLOUT BABY TRAFFICKING AVIATION NOTE HITS & MISSES SPORT NOTEBOOK NEW PAK ARMY CHIEF PAGE FROM HISTORY MIDDLE EAST SCENE US WATCH NEW WHITE HOUSE INDO-VIETNAMESE TIES BOOK BAZAAR BOOK BAZAAR GENDER VIOLENCE SIGNS OF THE TIMES YOGA IN DAILY LIFE-IX ART OF LIVING Issue:January' 2017 Subscribe Now	NEW PAK ARMY CHIEF Just a new cap to an old bottle Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa How much different Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa will be from Gen Raheel Sharif, whose three –year term ended in Nov end marking the first time in 20 years that a Pakistani Army chief has stepped down after a single term? Well, it all depends on what the stars foretell for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who hopes to win his fourth mandate in 2018 with some help from all-weather friend China. One thing is clear though. Bajwa was a dark horse in the race to lead the 55000 strong Pakistan Army till the last moment. What propelled him to the front line was his apolitical image. The same factor - distaste for politics- guided Nawaz Sharif's selection of Raheel Shari in Nov 2013. And the decision proved nearly costly in the end. As Stratfor analysts point out, during his time at the head of Pakistan's army, Raheel Sharif demonstrated the military's political might, exploited the army's social media prowess, and wrested control over foreign policy from the civilian sector during 2014 protests. So there is every possibility of history repeating itself once again to the dismay of Nawaz, because, as the saying goes, while most countries have an army, Pakistan's army has a country. And even when it is not formally in power, the Pakistani military wields tremendous influence as a kingmaker and its leaders are no less consequential to Pakistan's political scene. Compounding the equation is the presence of China factor. Anyhow, it is naïve to expect Bajwa to alter the military's role in Pakistan. On his part, Nawaz has come to realise that what matters in Pakistan is not his choice as Prime Minister but the collective will of the army as articulated by GHQ Shura. Frivolus talk Raheel Sharif In sections of Indian media as also Pakistani media, there has been some frivolous talk about how Bajwa, unlike the rabidly anti-India, Raheel Sharif, could possibly facilitate a reconciliation between India and Pakistan. These opinions are not only naïve but also gravely fallacious. To put it simply, the new chief is merely a new cap in the bottle of old wine. There will not, and cannot be, any change in the malevolent attitude of the Pakistan Army towards India and these talks of cease-fire are merely smokescreens to give Bajwa a breathing time to take control. If anyone has had any doubt about what lays behind the smokescreen, the Nagrota attack would have come as a shock. The attack, as is now becoming clear, is part of the Pakistani strategy to keep India engaged in a low intensity but debilitating conflict along the Line of Control (LoC). The torchbearer of this new game plan is General Qamar Javed Bajwa who comes to Rawalpindi GHQ with years of experience in fiddling with terrorism in Kashmir and keeping the LoC open for terrorists and conflict. As a Corps commander and commander of the Forward Command Northern Areas (FCNA) Bajwa had dealt with the likes of Hafiz Saeed, Syed Salahuddin and Azhar Mehmood on a daily basis. He knows how useful these terrorist leaders are to the Pakistan Army and its strategic goal of hurting India. He is certainly not giving up this potent weapon. Under his watch, rest assured, terrorists will continue to flourish and their infrastructure will expand, more close to the Indian border. With India responding with strong action to terrorist attacks, the new General is going to rely more heavily on the stable of terrorists the army has been protecting and sponsoring all these years. Kashmir becons The layout before him, as he sits on the chief's chair, is not difficult to see—on the west, the army has the Haqqani Network and other allied groups to bolster the chances of the Taliban holding ground in Afghanistan and on the east, the set of sponsored actors can challenge the Indian security forces now and then. Weighing heavily in his calculations might be how his predecessor was humbled by the sudden display of covert offensive by the adversary in response to Uri terrorist attack. He also might have been acutely aware how his predecessor, who hoped to remain in the saddle for another term, lost his battle with the Indian surgical strike, and left with ignominy. Common sense tells that to avoid such a turn of events, it is better not to repeat the same mistakes—in this case, sponsor terrorist attacks against India. But the Generals in Pakistan are not known to be paragons of this virtue and have followed what has been drilled into them from the day they join the military academy---to hate India. Ashfaq Kayani Kashmir is another issue which General Bajwa is not going to keep aside; in fact it will be the top item on his list of things to do. His immediate two successors, Raheel Sharif and Ashfaq Kayani, could not do much in Kashmir or in Afghanistan, which, both had boasted, were in their control. Meddling too much in Afghanistan, General Bajwa would find out, attracted the attention of Washington where there is a new incumbent, not exactly enamoured by Pakistan or its Generals. Therefore, it is towards the east, the new General would turn his attention to and it is so easy to fool the gullible in Pakistan with ``K`` word. All the Generals since 1947 have been dishing out the dream of getting Kashmir for Pakistan and almost all had a bloodied nose or tooth to hide. Not that General Bajwa would learn any lessons from such a sobering outcome of the army's misadventures. Without doubt, the new General would up the ante in Kashmir, just to prove the point that he is better than others and to reaffirm the myth that it is the army alone, represented by its chief, which is the saviour of Pakistan. This is the only way he can live down his family links with the Ahmedias and present himself before the bar of Hafeez Saeeds, Maulana Masoods and Fazalur Rehmans. King maker role Nawaz Sharif Whatever might be the compulsions and calculations of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in selecting General Bajwa, he is more than ever likely to depend on this General for his political future. More so as he will use the Kashmir issue to win votes in the 2018 election. Yet, post –elections the General and his GHQ Shura will have a key role in deciding who will be the next PM. It means the political class will be kow-towing to him, like it did during his predecessor's days, be it the Sharifs (already in the cloud over the Panama papers) and Imran Khan, or even the Bhuttos. The short point is that there is no way, General Bajwa is going to fritter away the chance of playing God in Pakistan, for the next three years by keeping the terrorists locked away or extending the olive branch to the adversary. It is more likely that he would intensify instability both within and outside Pakistan. India must be extremely wary of this new General in Rawalpindi. China factor More than India, of course, it is China which has reasons to worry because it has bet a lot on Pakistani generals to see through its plans for reaching out to the Arabian Sea with a rail and road economic corridor from Kashgar in Xinjinag to Gwadar in Balochistan. Xi Jinping The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a part of the new Silk Roads Chinese want to lay through Central, South and South East Asia under President Xi Jinping's ambitious 'One belt, one road' initiative. When completed the new Silk Roads will redefine the global geopolitics in the medium to long term. The Army Chief led GHQ Shura, Nawaz Sharif and China have a vested interest to make CPEC a success story. The Army sees the project as a perfect vehicle to win brownie points vis-à-vis Beijing since more than 10,000 Chinese engineers and workers are working in Pakistan. Already, the Army has raised a 12,000 –strong force to provide protection to the Chinese personnel. China is translating its long-term strategic ties with Pakistan into an economic partnership as a part of a broader infrastructure push across Eurasia. So much so greater economic success for its Pakistani ally will act as a source of stability and help to de-radicalize society, according to Andrew Small, author of The China-Pakistan Axis. The Jury is out on this perception though. Nawaz's bets On his part, Nawaz is betting on the Beijing –financed energy projects – estimated at around ten – to redeem his 2013 poll pledge of reducing load shedding, which today lasts anywhere between 12 and 18 hours a day. As Saeed Shah reported in The Wall St Journal (Dec 19, 2016), the Chinese projects could become a political issue. Already Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have kicked up a row complaining that Sharif's Punjab has scooped an unfair share of the projects. There are also environmental concerns and charges of corruption in CPEC projects.There is total absence of transparency. Hence the question: Will electoral outcome in Pakistan significantly affect Chinese efforts in the country? Global Times, the Chinese official newspaper that focuses on international issues, has a ready answer. "Beijing's efforts in the country (Pakistan) will likely remain stable throughout and after the election", the daily's in-house commentator, Hu Weijia wrote on Dec 20. He went on to say: "Given the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia, China has little motivation to see a change in the status quo. No matter who takes the helm in Pakistan, the country is unlikely to abandon the joint efforts behind the CPEC or shut the door on Chinese investment which has significantly benefited its energy sector." Blunt speak The acting Chinese ambassador in Pakistan, Zhao Lijian is, however, more forthright in his take. He told a receptive audience at a seminar in Islamabad in early December that the criticism against CPEC projects is no more than disinformation. Zhao Lijian "CPEC is working well. But there are some people who are maligning the project, which enjoys the support of most of the people of Pakistan," he said, and added "Some people are making false allegations". He also dismissed allegations of corruption saying, "This is all taxpayer's money. These are investment projects. How can we tolerate corruption or bribe." The Chinese diplomats are not known for blunt speak. Their forte is quiet diplomacy. This is a clear signal China's role in the region in general and in Pakistan in particular may be about to fundamentally change. As David Brewster, an Australian strategic expert, wrote in the most recent edition of the East Asia Forum Quarterly, 'Managing China', the Dragon has hitherto projected itself in Pakistan as a benevolent partner that does not 'meddle' in internal affairs.The CPEC involves many thousands of Chinese engineers and w o r k e r s building billions of dollars of infrastructure over thousands of kilometres of territory on a s c a l e far exceeding any previous C h i n e s e investments in Pakistan. The corridor traverses the territories of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan. These are territories with long-running insurgencies or long histories of violent resistance to meddling foreigners. At least, until recently, China has been "surprisingly sanguine about these risks and its ability to rely on the Pakistan Army".In fact, Beijing has been pushing Islamabad to give the Pakistan Army a leading role—above that of any civilian authorities—in CPEC South Block focus But if the separatists or fundamentalist insurgents see benefit in attacking Chinese nationals and assets, the Pakistan Army Chief Gen Bajwa will be in for a difficult time. Chinese security forces are said to be deployed in PoK to protect the Chinese workers. So much so it is not difficult to contemplate a growing Chinese security element in other Pakistani territories to the dismay of Pakistani army if they are unable to address the new threats given their traditional pre-occupations. Such development will mark a new phase in Sino-Pakistani relations, and herald the prospect of China's involvement in Pakistan's domestic political affairs. Put simply, there is no denying that CPEC has the potential to enmesh China much more closely in Pakistan for reasons beyond just physical security, making it a key player in the country's internal political and security affairs.That is good for thought to the mandarins in South Block, whose focus in so far CPEC is concerned is thus far limited to PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan.