The advantage AAP

Rajeev Sharma

The upcoming Delhi assembly polls – voting on February 8 and results on February 11 – are going to be very interesting and unique in many ways. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been out of power for two decades and the election will be its best bet to reap political gains from national issue like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC) and a local issue which fits in its saffron agenda -- the violence in Jamia Millia university.
Delhi used to be a two-horse race for decades, between Congress and BJP. But this changed since 2013 with the advent of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Since then, AAP has straddled the Delhi political landscape like a Colossus, winning as many as 67 out of 70 seats in the 2015 assembly elections. Needless to say that AAP’s comeuppance has been largely at the expense of the Congress party.

However, for this very reason the Delhi battle this time will be more interesting to watch as the Congress is on an upswing while the BJP is sliding down and losing states after states, having lost as many as five states in past 15 months. AAP could not replicate its 2015 assembly elections performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, indicating a complete dichotomy between state-level and national-level elections as far as Delhi voters are concerned.

While AAP is widely perceived as a clear winner in the upcoming elections and may end up winning anywhere between 45 and 50 seats, a main cause of worry for the ruling party is that it finished last in the triangular race in the 2019 general elections with a vote share of just 18.1 per cent (as against 54.3 per cent in the 2015 assembly polls). The Congress vote share swelled from a dismal 9.7 per cent in 2015 assembly elections to 22.5 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In contrast, the BJP vote share, by and large, remained the same in past five years -- 54.3 per cent in the 2015 assembly elections and 56.6 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

It won’t be wrong to say that the outcome of the upcoming election will be largely influenced by how the Congress performs. Even if the Congress were to repeat its 2019 general elections performance, it won’t be enough and the party may be successful in opening its account this time.

The Grand Old Party cannot hope to ride on its recent past glory (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand) and will have to increase its vote share by twenty per cent at least. This is easier said than done. For doing that the Congress will have to have a tsunami in its favour in Delhi, but even a small wave is not visible. The Congress may have prevented the BJP from retaining power in the abovementioned states, but if the BJP has to be prevented from capturing power in Delhi, the onus will be on AAP, not Congress.

Visuals of masked goons armed with hammers and lathis roaming
around in hostels and academic centres with utter impunity. As far as the BJP is concerned, not much has changed for the party in Delhi politically. Last time the BJP blundered by showcasing maverick cop Kiran Bedi as the party’s chief ministerial candidate and the party ended up with just three seats, with Bedi herself losing.
This time BJP has no CM face. Neither does the Congress. This is where AAP scores heavily as AAP leader and chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is not only the undisputed supreme leader of the party and the sole CM face but has also wowed the poor and the lower middle class people with his massive works in the fields of education and healthcare and making available electricity and water at the cheapest rates in the country.
But then the biggest issue in Delhi election may prove to be the large-scale violence in Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) on January 5 night.

A strange situation erupted in JNU where the putative protectors, Delhi Police, acted in collusion with the masked attackers, alleged to be from the BJP’s student wing Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP). Despite police presence at the entrance, the goons carrying iron rods and sticks entered and exited as though the JNU campus was a revolving door. The street lights were turned off.

Much like the horrifying siege of Mumbai in 2008 where terrorists went from room to room to kill guests in cold blood, the masked goons ransacked hostels and went from room to room to beat up students. This went on for hours and the police remained mute spectators and did nothing to prevent the methodical madness, neither during nor after the attacks.

If the BJP has really nothing to do with the JNU violence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah must ensure in double quick time that the Delhi Police got to the bottom of the case and booked all the culprits. Nothing of the sort has happened so far. Therefore, a pertinent question is whether the JNU violence is election-oriented?

The JNU violence has maligned the image of India internationally and that too at a time when exploits of Indian Research Space Organization (ISRO) have wowed the world. These two project two different Indias. The Delhi assembly election results on February 11 will decide which of the two Indias has an upper hand!

Delhi has crucial political importance despite the fact that it is not a full-fledged state and major departments like Delhi Police and Delhi Development Authority (DDA) are directly under the Centre. So, in many ways it’s still, more or less, like Union territory with a legislative assembly, but comparing Delhi with a union territory like Puducherry which has a legislative assembly will be both unfair and wrong.

This megalopolis has a population of two crore, bigger than some 150 countries. The political importance of Delhi lies in the fact Delhi election results very often serve as a bellwether cock and indicate the prevailing national mood.

It won’t be wrong to say that the route to political power in New Delhi goes from Delhi. That’s why the upcoming elections for the 70-member Delhi assembly acquire phenomenal importance.



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Delhi used to be a two-horse race for decades, between Congress and BJP. But this changed since 2013 with the advent of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Since then, AAP has straddled the Delhi political landscape like a Colossus, winning as many as 67 out of 70 seats in the 2015 assembly elections. Needless to say that AAP’s comeuppance has been largely at the expense of the Congress party. However, for this very reason the Delhi battle this time will be more interesting to watch as the Congress is on an upswing while the BJP is sliding down and losing states after states, having lost as many as five states in past 15 months. AAP could not replicate its 2015 assembly elections performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, indicating a complete dichotomy between state-level and national-level elections as far as Delhi voters are concerned. While AAP is widely perceived as a clear winner in the upcoming elections and may end up winning anywhere between 45 and 50 seats, a main cause of worry for the ruling party is that it finished last in the triangular race in the 2019 general elections with a vote share of just 18.1 per cent (as against 54.3 per cent in the 2015 assembly polls). The Congress vote share swelled from a dismal 9.7 per cent in 2015 assembly elections to 22.5 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In contrast, the BJP vote share, by and large, remained the same in past five years -- 54.3 per cent in the 2015 assembly elections and 56.6 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It won’t be wrong to say that the outcome of the upcoming election will be largely influenced by how the Congress performs. Even if the Congress were to repeat its 2019 general elections performance, it won’t be enough and the party may be successful in opening its account this time. The Grand Old Party cannot hope to ride on its recent past glory (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand) and will have to increase its vote share by twenty per cent at least. This is easier said than done. For doing that the Congress will have to have a tsunami in its favour in Delhi, but even a small wave is not visible. The Congress may have prevented the BJP from retaining power in the abovementioned states, but if the BJP has to be prevented from capturing power in Delhi, the onus will be on AAP, not Congress. Visuals of masked goons armed with hammers and lathis roaming around in hostels and academic centres with utter impunity. As far as the BJP is concerned, not much has changed for the party in Delhi politically. Last time the BJP blundered by showcasing maverick cop Kiran Bedi as the party’s chief ministerial candidate and the party ended up with just three seats, with Bedi herself losing. This time BJP has no CM face. Neither does the Congress. This is where AAP scores heavily as AAP leader and chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is not only the undisputed supreme leader of the party and the sole CM face but has also wowed the poor and the lower middle class people with his massive works in the fields of education and healthcare and making available electricity and water at the cheapest rates in the country. But then the biggest issue in Delhi election may prove to be the large-scale violence in Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) on January 5 night. A strange situation erupted in JNU where the putative protectors, Delhi Police, acted in collusion with the masked attackers, alleged to be from the BJP’s student wing Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP). Despite police presence at the entrance, the goons carrying iron rods and sticks entered and exited as though the JNU campus was a revolving door. The street lights were turned off. Much like the horrifying siege of Mumbai in 2008 where terrorists went from room to room to kill guests in cold blood, the masked goons ransacked hostels and went from room to room to beat up students. This went on for hours and the police remained mute spectators and did nothing to prevent the methodical madness, neither during nor after the attacks. If the BJP has really nothing to do with the JNU violence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah must ensure in double quick time that the Delhi Police got to the bottom of the case and booked all the culprits. Nothing of the sort has happened so far. Therefore, a pertinent question is whether the JNU violence is election-oriented? The JNU violence has maligned the image of India internationally and that too at a time when exploits of Indian Research Space Organization (ISRO) have wowed the world. These two project two different Indias. The Delhi assembly election results on February 11 will decide which of the two Indias has an upper hand! If the BJP has really nothing to do with the JNU violence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah must ensure in double quick time that the Delhi Police got to the bottom of the case and booked all the culprits. Nothing of the sort has happened so far. Therefore, a pertinent question is whether the JNU violence is election-oriented? Delhi has crucial political importance despite the fact that it is not a full-fledged state and major departments like Delhi Police and Delhi Development Authority (DDA) are directly under the Centre. So, in many ways it’s still, more or less, like Union territory with a legislative assembly, but comparing Delhi with a union territory like Puducherry which has a legislative assembly will be both unfair and wrong. This megalopolis has a population of two crore, bigger than some 150 countries. The political importance of Delhi lies in the fact Delhi election results very often serve as a bellwether cock and indicate the prevailing national mood. It won’t be wrong to say that the route to political power in New Delhi goes from Delhi. That’s why the upcoming elections for the 70-member Delhi assembly acquire phenomenal importance.