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GUJARAT ASSEMBLY POLL
Will BJP touch Magic figure 150 ?Yogesh Sharma
Narendra Modi
Hardik Patel,
A l p e s h
Thakore and
Jigneh Mevani
are household
names in
Gujarat. In the media, these
three names have
transcended state boundaries
and are known to those who
have any interest in Gujarat or
who are studying social
engineering in the country.
These young men represent
three major components of
Gujarat society, Patidars, OBC
and Dalits which accounts for
more than 70 per cent of the population and thus vote
bank.
traditional political system, on
their own. All this has
happened in a short span of
less than three years. When
Gujarat goes to the polls in
December, much of the
election politics is hovering
round these three leaders.
They have made one thing
clear: they are deadly against
the ruling BJP in Gujarat.
Hardik Patel is a leader of
Patidars. He demands
reservation for Patidars in
jobs and education like OBC.
The agitation, led by Patidar
Amanat Andolan Samiti (PAAS)
in August 2015, resulted in
statewide unrest in which 14
Patidars were killed in police
firing. This also resulted in
hundreds of police cases
against Patidars.
Rahul Gandhi
Alpesh Thakore emerged as
leader fighting against the
problem of drinking in the
Thakore community. Later he
added the problem of education and employment in
his community charter. This
forced the government to
come out with more strict
prohibition policy while
Alpesh emerged as a stronger
leader of the community,
having influence in six
districts.
Hardik Patel
Much of the time and
energy of both the Congress
and the BJP is focused on
taking these leaders in their
fold as they are outside the
network of the two parties in their vote banks. Alpesh
Thakore has already joined the
Congress and Hardik Patel has
extended full support to the
Congress. Mevani is likely to
make his stand clear in coming
days. He seems all set to
support the Congress.
Amit Shah
The rise of these leaders
shows the failure of the
political system to respond to
the problems of three major
segments of the society. At the
same time, it is a telling
evidence of failure of the
ruling party to handle the
problems of these sectors. Alpesh Thakor Vijay Rupani Vikas v. NavsarjanBoth the Congress and the
BJP have one word slogan to
describe their campaign. The
BJP says that it stands for the
development of the state. It
claims that Gujarat has
developed during the 12-yearrule
of Narendra Modi who was Chief Minister till 2014.
Thereafter he became Prime
Minister. Jignesh Mevani BJP leaders start with the word Vikas with some figures of growth rate and vibrant Gujarat MOUs and soon turn to injustice to Gujarat's cry. First and foremost is the Narmada project which, according to the BJP, is the best example of anti-Gujarat mindset. The BJP has clear agenda of raising the Gujarati emotional pitch in the campaign. Leader after leader talks
about injustice to Sardar Patel
by the Congress and Nehru.
They frequently ask questions:
Why Nehru prevented people
from going to the funeral of
Sardar Patel? Why was he not
given the Bharat Ratna award
by the Nehru-Gandhi family in
power while Rajiv Gandhi was
given award quickly? Then,
they remind the people of
communal riots during the
Congress rule while claiming
that under the BJP rule Gujarat
is curfew free and people are
living peacefully. Modi v. RahulNeither the Congress nor
the BJP has local face to lead
the campaign. The BJP has
Modi with his Gujarat and
Gujarati spirit. He has come to
Gujarat more than a dozen
times in the past six months to
campaign for his party.
Though BJP leaders claim that
Vijay Rupani will remain CM
and Nitin Patel Deputy CM on
the party's return to power,
one can not be sure. Such
statements by BJP leaders
come up during the media
interaction. None is projected
this way. Rebellion in BJP cadresThis is something which is a
great news for the cadrebased
BJP. Vertical split in the
Gujarat BJP by Shankarsinh
Vaghela in 1997 was an
exception. This time, rebellion
in the party from the worker
level to MLA and MP is very
evident on TV channels and
occupy considerable space in
newspapers. Two MPs
demanded assembly tickets
for their wife and son,
threating to resign to press
their demand. Some former
MLAs have quit. Some filed
nominations as independent.
This has put party leaders in
damage control mode. It is
likely to succeed in many
cases like the agitation of
Karadia Rajputs against Party
president Jitu Vaghani. They
wanted his resignation. But
they were seen together at the
public meeting at the time of
filing of nomination by
Vaghani. BJP's "operation pacify"For the past four months, the BJP has doled out schemes and incentives of thousands of crores to garner support of diverse dissenting groups. It has set up commissions for agitating Patidars, raised salary of agitating fixed wage earners, ASHA workers and teachers. But none seems to be satisfied as all have issued statements to the media saying that these are election gimmicks. The question is: will these efforts help the BJP keep its base intact and further expand it to touch the magic figure of 150? Magic figure of 150The logic of 150 is quite
interesting. The highest
number of seats 149 were won
by the Congress when
Madhavsinh Solanki was Chief
Minister in 1985. In 1980, the
Congress had won 139 seats. |