What lies ahead

Rajeev Sharma

Illustrative diagram of the Doklam plateau at the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction in the Sikkim sector, showing the relative positions of the Indian Army post at Doka La, the 20 km-long Chinese 'Class-5' track, and the Jampheri ridge. The drawing is approximate, and not to scale. Sarfaraz Alam/Terrain Image from Google Earth. Courtesy Indian Express Let's come to the brasstacks upfront. China's shenanigans in Doklam area have wiped off in one stroke whatever goodwill it had tried to generate among Bhutanese for the last decade . China has been wooing, coaxing, even coercing Bhutan to set up bilateral diplomatic ties and Bhutan has been withstanding the Chinese enormous pressures all this

Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao with his Bhutanese counterpart Jigmi Y. Thinley in Rio de Janeiro. while. But after the unprovoked and unwarranted Chinese aggression in Doklam, Beijing should forget about opening its embassy in Thimpu for many years, a strategic objective of China which appeared to deliver dividends soon after the June 2012 meeting between Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao held his first meeting with Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigmi Y. Thinley primarily on this issue in Rio de Janerio.

The month-long ongoing India-China standoff in Doklam at the Sikkim- Bhutan-Tibet trijunction is among the worst crises between India and China since the two Asian giants fought a war five and a half decades ago – a crisis where both sides are sticking to their respectively stated maximalist positions and asking each other to back off but neither side is doing what it is asking the other to do.

Xi Jinping This is the most important self goal that the Chinese have scored with regard to their sustained wooing of the tiny Bhutan. China has behaved boorishly with this aggressive action and has alienated the common Bhutanese to a large extent. Judged from this specific context alone, India should send a 'thank you' note to the Chinese for doing what the Indians had been trying to do all these years: ensuring that China does not establish direct diplomatic relations with Bhutan. The reason is simple. The Doklam issue has got nothing to do with the Sino-Indian border dispute. Instead, it's all about a China-Bhutan boundary problem. India has waded into the frame because it is treaty-bound to protect Bhutan from all external aggressions and the Doklam issue must be seen in the correct perspective: that a giant country is trying to threaten its tiny neighbour.
The month-long ongoing India- China standoff in Doklam at the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet trijunction is among the worst crises between India and China since the two Asian giants fought a war five and a half decades ago – a crisis where both sides are sticking to their respectively stated maximalist positions and asking each other to back off but neither side is doing what it is asking the other to do. It is queer that the Doklam crisis erupted full bloom exactly a month China held an international event, the Belt and Road Summit in Beijing on 14-15 May which India dismissively boycotted. It's quite probable that the Indian boycott of a summit on China's biggest-ever project being personally shepherded by none other than President Xi Jinping was the real trigger for the Chinese action in Doklam. While talking about the Doklam standoff an important thing to be kept in mind is that it is not about India-

Extraordinary situations need extraordinary solutions and out of the box strategies, which the current Doklam standoff demands. The OBOR card may well be the best card to be played at this juncture.

Trade diplomacy

China has pushed the envelope on the Doklam issue at a wrong time. By rolling out its ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) project, China has taken a giant leap into a trade diplomacy while promising huge economic returns to all stakeholders, particularly its neighbouring countries. With this initiative, China has become a 'chatur baniya' or a clever mercenary. And mercenaries don't fight! They don't fight even with fisticuffs, leave alone waging wars. Therefore, China is in no position to wage wars even

against tiny powers like Bhutan, leave alone a mighty nucleararmed neighbour like India. So, if China is not in a position to wage a war why is it prolonging the Doklam crisis and why doesn't it simply withdraw its troops? That's a million dollar question and there are no credible answers from China at this stage.
Obviously, China has bitten much more than it could chew primarily because it never anticipated that the Indian response would be so robust, so prompt and so categorical. Now faced with this kind of unexpected Indian response, the Chinese are left to justify their aggression in Bhutan by hook or by crook. The Chinese are now battling to keep intact their image of a near-superpower in the region. That explains why the Doklam standoff has stretched so long already and may go on for quite some time more.
Also, China knows in hearts of its heart that it is not dealing with India of 1962, despite the diplomatic shrill from China that India is not dealing with the China of 1962. Whichever way you look at it, the truth is that China is finding itself caught in an ugly situation. China is concerned that if it were to pull out its troops from Doklam now or in near future, it would be emerging as a weak power in eyes of its putative regional satellites, something which it can I'll afford. That's why the Doklam crisis is continuing.

Flashpoints

The Dalai Lama wearing an Assamese Japi during an event in Guwahati. Forget the serial bilateral flashpoints between India and China like the Dalai Lama's fairly long visit to Arunachal Pradesh, China's opposition to India's aspirations for full membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) or China blocking India's campaign on the issue of the United Nations blacklisting Pakistan-backed terrorists like Masood Azhar. The real red flag in Sino-Indian bilateral ties may well be the OBOR issue.

Masood Azhar FIndia has rejected OBOR because its integral component is the CPEC or China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). China isn't moved one bit by Indian protests over the CPEC and, obviously, the Modi government can't be seen as giving a green light to a project that benefits arch rivals Pakistan and compromises its stand on the Kashmir issue.

India has rejected OBOR because its integral component is the CPEC or China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Pakistanoccupied Kashmir (PoK). China isn't moved one bit by Indian protests over the CPEC and, obviously, the Modi government can't be seen as giving a green light to a project that benefits arch rivals Pakistan and compromises its stand on the Kashmir issue.

Matt Pottinger India committed a gross error of judgement by completely boycotting the BRI Forum Summit. Instead New Delhi should have sent a representative to China even at a junior level. After all, even the US attended the BRI summit and too at a fairly senior level. Matt Pottinger, Special Assistant to President Donald Trump and senior director for East Asia of National Security Council of the White House, attended the event. This when everyone knows that India's rivalry with China can't be greater than the US-China rivalry despite a recent thaw in Washington-Beijing ties.
Diplomacy can be both a hammer and a sickle. While India may be using the hammer in its diplomatic dealings with Pakistan it can't treat China in the same vein. Not an ironsmith's hammer but a goldsmith's sickle is the appropriate tool for dealing with China, the world's second largest economy and a near-superpower. India will be committing a blunder if it were to expand and intensify relations with far-abroad while ignoring its near abroad, particularly a contiguous neighbour like China with which it has over a four thousand kilometer long border.
Extraordinary situations need extraordinary solutions and out of the box strategies, which the current Doklam standoff demands. The OBOR card may well be the best card to be played at this juncture.
Having said that it doesn't mean that India should be on its knees and accept OBOR in its entirety including the CPEC where India's opposition is justifiably non-negotiable. All that India has to do is to signal to the Chinese its willingness to "discuss" OBOR. The key word is "discuss" which doesn't mean that India is ready to sign on the dotted line. But this signal alone would be a major face-saver for Beijing and should be enough to bring about the much-needed thaw in India-China relations.

Not An India of 1962

Matt Pottinger India has been beefing up its military muscle in the Chinaspecific military theatre for years, making it impossible for China to repeat its shenanigans if 1962. China knows that India has actually beefed up its military muscle in recent years like never before. Here are a few examples. = India plans to spend about a billion dollars soon to boost IAF's capabilities vis a vis China in two ways immediately: (1) by constructing 108 new generation aircraft shelters to protect its fighter fleet; and (2) by improving the infrastructure in Nyoma and Kargil airfields in Ladakh to facilitate more fighter flying near India's border with China and Pakistan. = Essentially, it means India is preparing its military infrastructure and capabilities to fight a two-pronged war simultaneously with China and Pakistan. = The hardened blast panes with reinforced concrete and iron doors, each costing Rs 50 crores, will safeguard India's frontline fighter aircraft like Su- 30MKI, Jaguars, Mirages and the upcoming Rafale aircraft from 2,000- pound enemy bombs in case of a war. Iron doors are meant to minimize the chances of fragmentation damage from a missile strike. = Currently, IAF shelters are capable of withstanding a blast from a 1,000-pound bomb whereas China already possesses 2,000-pound bombs. = India will spend two billion dollars to upgrade 17 highways across the country for aircraft landings, take-offs of defence planes and rapid deployment of security forces. While being key force multipliers in war conditions, these highway airstrips will be used for disaster management, relief operations and casualty evacuation in peace times. Vehicular movement will be suspended when an airplane lands or takes off. = The scheme was first mooted in January 2016. However, it was only a few days ago that all clearances have been given, coinciding with a month-long Sikkim crisis, the worst standoff between Chinese and Indian militaries since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. = The highways to be upgraded include Bijbehera- Chinar Bagh, Banihal-Srinagar, K h a r a g p u r - B a l a s o r e , Kharagpur-Keonjhar, Lucknow- Agra Expressway, Phalodi- Jaisalmer, Barmer-Jaisalmer, Dwarka-Maliya, Nellore- Ongole, Ongole-Chikaluripet, C h e n n a i - P o n d i c h e r r y , Kodiakkarai-Ramanathpuram and Lucknow Balia Expressway. = Recently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) successfully landed a Mirage-2000 on the Yamuna Expressway near Mathura as part of its trials to use national highways for emergency landing by fighter aircraft. = In Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Rajasthan's border districts, the upgraded highways will be used as airstrips as a greenfield airport cannot be constructed there due to several constraints.



		EDITOR'S MAIL MATTERS OF PUBLIC POLICY CHANGE OF GUARDS DOKLAM STANDOFF CHINA'S GAMEPLAN GST EFFECTS REALPOLITIK FRANKLY SPEAKING POWER OF MANUPULATION COMPETITIVE POPULISM MISPLACED CONCEPT WEST BENGAL POINTERS CHANDIGARH DIARY HITS & MISSES SPORTS WATCH AMERICAN DIARY PAKISTAN WATCH BEIJING'S BACKYARD BOOK BAZAAR BOOK BAZAAR FOR THE NATION'S SAKE SIGNS OF THE TIMES YOGA IN DAILY LIFE TRAVELOGUE ART OF LIVING Issue:August' 2017 Subscribe Now	DOKLAM STANDOFF What lies ahead Rajeev Sharma Illustrative diagram of the Doklam plateau at the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction in the Sikkim sector, showing the relative positions of the Indian Army post at Doka La, the 20 km-long Chinese 'Class-5' track, and the Jampheri ridge. The drawing is approximate, and not to scale. Sarfaraz Alam/Terrain Image from Google Earth. Courtesy Indian Express Let's come to the brasstacks upfront. China's shenanigans in Doklam area have wiped off in one stroke whatever goodwill it had tried to generate among Bhutanese for the last decade . China has been wooing, coaxing, even coercing Bhutan to set up bilateral diplomatic ties and Bhutan has been withstanding the Chinese enormous pressures all this Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao with his Bhutanese counterpart Jigmi Y. Thinley in Rio de Janeiro. while. But after the unprovoked and unwarranted Chinese aggression in Doklam, Beijing should forget about opening its embassy in Thimpu for many years, a strategic objective of China which appeared to deliver dividends soon after the June 2012 meeting between Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao held his first meeting with Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigmi Y. Thinley primarily on this issue in Rio de Janerio. The month-long ongoing India-China standoff in Doklam at the Sikkim- Bhutan-Tibet trijunction is among the worst crises between India and China since the two Asian giants fought a war five and a half decades ago – a crisis where both sides are sticking to their respectively stated maximalist positions and asking each other to back off but neither side is doing what it is asking the other to do. Xi Jinping This is the most important self goal that the Chinese have scored with regard to their sustained wooing of the tiny Bhutan. China has behaved boorishly with this aggressive action and has alienated the common Bhutanese to a large extent. Judged from this specific context alone, India should send a 'thank you' note to the Chinese for doing what the Indians had been trying to do all these years: ensuring that China does not establish direct diplomatic relations with Bhutan. The reason is simple. The Doklam issue has got nothing to do with the Sino-Indian border dispute. Instead, it's all about a China-Bhutan boundary problem. India has waded into the frame because it is treaty-bound to protect Bhutan from all external aggressions and the Doklam issue must be seen in the correct perspective: that a giant country is trying to threaten its tiny neighbour. The month-long ongoing India- China standoff in Doklam at the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet trijunction is among the worst crises between India and China since the two Asian giants fought a war five and a half decades ago – a crisis where both sides are sticking to their respectively stated maximalist positions and asking each other to back off but neither side is doing what it is asking the other to do. It is queer that the Doklam crisis erupted full bloom exactly a month China held an international event, the Belt and Road Summit in Beijing on 14-15 May which India dismissively boycotted. It's quite probable that the Indian boycott of a summit on China's biggest-ever project being personally shepherded by none other than President Xi Jinping was the real trigger for the Chinese action in Doklam. While talking about the Doklam standoff an important thing to be kept in mind is that it is not about India- Extraordinary situations need extraordinary solutions and out of the box strategies, which the current Doklam standoff demands. The OBOR card may well be the best card to be played at this juncture. Trade diplomacy China has pushed the envelope on the Doklam issue at a wrong time. By rolling out its ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) project, China has taken a giant leap into a trade diplomacy while promising huge economic returns to all stakeholders, particularly its neighbouring countries. With this initiative, China has become a 'chatur baniya' or a clever mercenary. And mercenaries don't fight! They don't fight even with fisticuffs, leave alone waging wars. Therefore, China is in no position to wage wars even against tiny powers like Bhutan, leave alone a mighty nucleararmed neighbour like India. So, if China is not in a position to wage a war why is it prolonging the Doklam crisis and why doesn't it simply withdraw its troops? That's a million dollar question and there are no credible answers from China at this stage. Obviously, China has bitten much more than it could chew primarily because it never anticipated that the Indian response would be so robust, so prompt and so categorical. Now faced with this kind of unexpected Indian response, the Chinese are left to justify their aggression in Bhutan by hook or by crook. The Chinese are now battling to keep intact their image of a near-superpower in the region. That explains why the Doklam standoff has stretched so long already and may go on for quite some time more. Also, China knows in hearts of its heart that it is not dealing with India of 1962, despite the diplomatic shrill from China that India is not dealing with the China of 1962. Whichever way you look at it, the truth is that China is finding itself caught in an ugly situation. China is concerned that if it were to pull out its troops from Doklam now or in near future, it would be emerging as a weak power in eyes of its putative regional satellites, something which it can I'll afford. That's why the Doklam crisis is continuing. Flashpoints The Dalai Lama wearing an Assamese Japi during an event in Guwahati. Forget the serial bilateral flashpoints between India and China like the Dalai Lama's fairly long visit to Arunachal Pradesh, China's opposition to India's aspirations for full membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) or China blocking India's campaign on the issue of the United Nations blacklisting Pakistan-backed terrorists like Masood Azhar. The real red flag in Sino-Indian bilateral ties may well be the OBOR issue. Masood Azhar FIndia has rejected OBOR because its integral component is the CPEC or China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). China isn't moved one bit by Indian protests over the CPEC and, obviously, the Modi government can't be seen as giving a green light to a project that benefits arch rivals Pakistan and compromises its stand on the Kashmir issue. India has rejected OBOR because its integral component is the CPEC or China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Pakistanoccupied Kashmir (PoK). China isn't moved one bit by Indian protests over the CPEC and, obviously, the Modi government can't be seen as giving a green light to a project that benefits arch rivals Pakistan and compromises its stand on the Kashmir issue. Matt Pottinger India committed a gross error of judgement by completely boycotting the BRI Forum Summit. Instead New Delhi should have sent a representative to China even at a junior level. After all, even the US attended the BRI summit and too at a fairly senior level. Matt Pottinger, Special Assistant to President Donald Trump and senior director for East Asia of National Security Council of the White House, attended the event. This when everyone knows that India's rivalry with China can't be greater than the US-China rivalry despite a recent thaw in Washington-Beijing ties. Diplomacy can be both a hammer and a sickle. While India may be using the hammer in its diplomatic dealings with Pakistan it can't treat China in the same vein. Not an ironsmith's hammer but a goldsmith's sickle is the appropriate tool for dealing with China, the world's second largest economy and a near-superpower. India will be committing a blunder if it were to expand and intensify relations with far-abroad while ignoring its near abroad, particularly a contiguous neighbour like China with which it has over a four thousand kilometer long border. Extraordinary situations need extraordinary solutions and out of the box strategies, which the current Doklam standoff demands. The OBOR card may well be the best card to be played at this juncture. Having said that it doesn't mean that India should be on its knees and accept OBOR in its entirety including the CPEC where India's opposition is justifiably non-negotiable. All that India has to do is to signal to the Chinese its willingness to "discuss" OBOR. The key word is "discuss" which doesn't mean that India is ready to sign on the dotted line. But this signal alone would be a major face-saver for Beijing and should be enough to bring about the much-needed thaw in India-China relations. Not An India of 1962 Matt Pottinger India has been beefing up its military muscle in the Chinaspecific military theatre for years, making it impossible for China to repeat its shenanigans if 1962. China knows that India has actually beefed up its military muscle in recent years like never before. Here are a few examples. = India plans to spend about a billion dollars soon to boost IAF's capabilities vis a vis China in two ways immediately: (1) by constructing 108 new generation aircraft shelters to protect its fighter fleet; and (2) by improving the infrastructure in Nyoma and Kargil airfields in Ladakh to facilitate more fighter flying near India's border with China and Pakistan. = Essentially, it means India is preparing its military infrastructure and capabilities to fight a two-pronged war simultaneously with China and Pakistan. = The hardened blast panes with reinforced concrete and iron doors, each costing Rs 50 crores, will safeguard India's frontline fighter aircraft like Su- 30MKI, Jaguars, Mirages and the upcoming Rafale aircraft from 2,000- pound enemy bombs in case of a war. Iron doors are meant to minimize the chances of fragmentation damage from a missile strike. = Currently, IAF shelters are capable of withstanding a blast from a 1,000-pound bomb whereas China already possesses 2,000-pound bombs. = India will spend two billion dollars to upgrade 17 highways across the country for aircraft landings, take-offs of defence planes and rapid deployment of security forces. While being key force multipliers in war conditions, these highway airstrips will be used for disaster management, relief operations and casualty evacuation in peace times. Vehicular movement will be suspended when an airplane lands or takes off. = The scheme was first mooted in January 2016. However, it was only a few days ago that all clearances have been given, coinciding with a month-long Sikkim crisis, the worst standoff between Chinese and Indian militaries since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. = The highways to be upgraded include Bijbehera- Chinar Bagh, Banihal-Srinagar, K h a r a g p u r - B a l a s o r e , Kharagpur-Keonjhar, Lucknow- Agra Expressway, Phalodi- Jaisalmer, Barmer-Jaisalmer, Dwarka-Maliya, Nellore- Ongole, Ongole-Chikaluripet, C h e n n a i - P o n d i c h e r r y , Kodiakkarai-Ramanathpuram and Lucknow Balia Expressway. = Recently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) successfully landed a Mirage-2000 on the Yamuna Expressway near Mathura as part of its trials to use national highways for emergency landing by fighter aircraft. = In Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Rajasthan's border districts, the upgraded highways will be used as airstrips as a greenfield airport cannot be constructed there due to several constraints.