The new paramount leader to watch !

Malladi Rama Rao

Xi Jinping In the fortnight before the Dragon handed over to its President Xi Jinping limitless power, foreign minister Wang Yi spoke of a healthy turnaround in Sino-Indian relations. "Let's tango, not fight," he said, adding that "even Himalayas cannot stop improving our ties".
Wang made these remarks on Mar 8, 2018 in Beijing while talking to journalists. He has since been promoted as State Councillor in Xi's new cabinet and may lead border talks with India.
Peaceniks have quickly jumped to the conclusion that six months after the end of Doklam faceoff with India, China was softening its image. Some commentators opined that President Xi looks to reset China ties with India. And media reports suggest the possibility of an informal Xi-Modi summit sometime in April.
The two leaders are also set to meet in June when the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) holds its annual session.
This scenario brightened the prospects of momentum returning to the relations between the two Asian giants. But it did not last long. On March 20, as he started his "new long" term as President, Xi flagged nationalism, and thus gave fresh currency to the long -- held view that optimism and despair alternate in the Sino-Indian ties. He did not name any country in his address to the Chinese parliament- National People's Congress (NPC), which mandated absolute power to him, and put him in league with Mao Zedong.
Well, Xi assured his receptive audience that under his leadership, China is not seeking hegemony but it will be "absolutely impossible to separate an inch of country's territories." He went on to declare: " We are resolved to fight the bloody battle against our enemies, and on the basis of independence we are determined to recapture the relics. Any action and tricks to split China are doomed to failure and will be condemned by the people and punished by history."
The need for such a forthright declaration remains unclear since there is no visible threat to China and its hegemony even in the South China Sea region. Taiwan is not going anywhere and so is Hong Kong. If there is any threat of secession, it is in the Xinjiang province, where Pakistan and its Islamist friends are the real force behind the Uyghur Muslim unrest.
President Xi made no mention of the Uyghur insurgency. Probably, he still believes that the likes of Jaish-e- Muhammad (JeM) chief Masood Azhar will honour their commitment not to disturb peace in Urumqi. Islamists' promises should not be taken on face value as the United States of America has learnt the hard way. The kidnap and ransom threats Chinese workers are facing in Pakistan should have been an eye-opener to Beijing. It is not yet the case.
And this leaves India with which China has had a territorial dispute in the Himalays. China is also positioning as a challenger in the Indian Ocean region, what with its 'string of pearls.' The Doklam standoff, if we go by the views of noted Sinologist, Bertil Lintner, was not designed against India but aimed at driving a wedge between India and Bhutan.

Xi has reasons to worry as the debt levels increased by more than 100 percentage points, or nearly doubled, over the past decade – a period in which he had held the reins of the country for five years.

Bertil Lintner How things would shape up vis-à- vis India is difficult to crystal gaze. It should remain vigilant whether on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) or in the Indian Ocean region. Also, to the challenge of a two –front war. More so as the LAC witnessed highest number of transgressions by Chinese military patrols last year. The new defence minister, Wei Fenghe, is known as Missile Man. He is the man who is credited with rapid modernisation of Chinese army, and carving out the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force. Henceforth, his focus will be cutting-edge technologies in areas like drones, robots, aircraft carriers, radar and missiles to sharpen the teeth of the People's Liberation Army.

Wei Fenghe President Xi's advice to his countrymen should be taken with all the seriousness it deserves. The people of China must be ready to contend with forces that are likely to hinder their country's growth spiral, he was quoted as saying.
As economists of all hues aver, what hinders China's growth momentum is an internal danger that comes from a huge pile up of debt - corporate and household, and it continues to swell. China's overall debt-to-G.D.P. ratio already exceeds 270 per cent which is higher than that of most emergingmarket economies.
Xi has reasons to worry as the debt levels increased by more than 100 percentage points, or nearly doubled, over the past decade – a period in which he had held the reins of the country for five years. His goal is to make China a global economic, political and military superpower. But achieving the economic miracle will itself need a miracle.

Wang Yi As Tom Holland reported in the South China Morning Post (March 5, 2018), President Xi is setting himself up for failure with his style of government and economic policy.
"….Xi's drive to centralise and tighten his control over China's state machinery and economy will rein in – rather than unleash – animal spirits and economic enterprise. The risk is that, with meaningful market-oriented liberalisation largely off the table; China will fall back on a continued expansion of debt to maintain even moderate growth over coming years," Tom wrote almost a week before NPC made Xi President for life by removing the two term limit on Presidency.

Will this prognosis hold ground in the years ahead? Difficult to say but if it does, Xi's call for nationalism could help divert attention from the immediate to a catchy rallying point.

At this stage, it is not clear as to why Xi Jinping opted to tighten his grip and went about abolishing the two-term limit for president and his deputies. He appears to see "One Belt -One Road nirvana in authoritarianism, which sadly has not offered a recipe anywhere anytime. The term limit was a statutory provision paramount leader Deng Xiaoping had got incorporated in early 1980s as a check against "empire building" he had witnessed during the Cultural Revolution.

Chris Buckley reports in the New York Times (Mar 7, 2018) that Xi made his power grab with "stealth, speed and guile".

After working behind the scenes for months, (some reports say he got the Politburo nod last Sept), Xi made the CPC's Central Committee give the go ahead to his plan in early January. It, however, came to light almost a month later. The annual session of China's Parliament rubber-stamped the deal on March 11, with as many as 2,958 deputies voting in favour. Only two voted against and three abstained.
"I always thought Xi would seek to stay for three or four terms, and could even introduce a new presidential system after his terms were finished.

Wang Qishan with Xi Jinping But I never thought the Constitution would be revised so quickly," Wu Wei, a former official who advised Zhao Ziyang, the party leader ousted during the mass protests of 1989 in Tiananmen Square, was quoted as saying in a media dispatch.
Xi is going about systematically tightening his hold on the bureaucracy, and the Army. He has set up National Supervision Commission to extend Communist Party's arbitrary disciplinary regime across the country. The new edict says failure to "effectively implement" his edicts will be deemed as "corruption by inaction".
"Xi Jinping Thought" has officially become the guiding ideology for the country. Several of his ideas, concepts and policies have entered the constitution. These include: "new development model", "social and ecological civilisation", "harmonious and beautiful", "modern and powerful [country]", "achieve the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", "shared destiny of mankind" and "promote core socialist values".

Donald Trump The Chinese constitution now describes the Communist party's leadership as the "the most fundamental characteristic" of Chinese socialism. Put simply, it means CPC is the only party fit to rule China, and Xi is the paramount leader.
No surprise, therefore, "who would dare to challenge or transcend Xi or offer him any advice," asks Tseng Chien-yuan, an associate professor at Chung Hua University in Taiwan.
Well, this is dangerous since it makes China slide back into strongman politics. Already the Xi regime has seen a tightening of controls on society both online and offline. Says a commentator
"Personalisation of power under Xi began in 2016, when he was anointed the core of the party – bringing back an obscure title that had not been used for 10 years and had previously been held only by leaders in power for more than two consecutive terms."

On the foreign policy front, President Xi has put in place a team of "highly trained experts" to help deliver on his global goals. Most of them have made their mark in handling the West. The new vice president, Wang Qisham, who has been a major player in Xi's battle against corruption, also has experience in dealing with the U. S. A signal that Xi is increasingly worried about Washington, which under President Trump, has become unpredictable in diplomacy and tariff regime. Xi's economic policies may be in the hands of a hand-picked Harvardreturned in his quest for a new development model Growth has been a mirage beyond the four metros and poverty and debt levels are not looking south. There is no longer pressure on Chinese companies to spread overseas. Instead they are facing the axe for debt–fuelled spending.
One such company is Anbang Insurance Group, whose acquisitions include the iconic Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York and major financial firms in South Korea and the Netherlands as well as overseas properties worth billions of dollars. The state has since taken over the company. Will one act be enough? That is a question with no answers.
The Chinese economy flush with its own variant of black money is primarily export-driven and addicted to debt. President Xi may be serious to cleanse the financial system and stabilise the world's second largest economy. Scepticism is justified nevertheless. Reason? The Chinese officials are known to be reluctant to "pare back at the risk of curbing growth and provoking unrest".



		EDITOR'S MAIL FROM THE EDITOR PARLIAMENT LOGJAM CHANGING EQUATIONS CHANGING EQUATIONS FRANKLY SPEAKING DATELINE KARNATAKA EMPOWERING STUDENTS EMPOWERING STUDENTS FARMERS' PLIGHT INTERVIEW SIGNS OF THE TIMES KASHMIR WATCH REALPOLITIK ELECTORAL FAULTLINES SIGNALS FROM WEST BENGAL CHANDIGARH DIARY STRONGMAN POLITICS INDO-CANADIAN TIES HITS & MISSES BOOK BAZAAR BOOK BAZAAR MAKING OF A NOVELIST YOGA IN DAILY LIFE THE ROAD AHEAD Issue:Apr' 2018 Subscribe Now	STRONGMAN POLITICS The new paramount leader to watch ! Malladi Rama Rao Xi Jinping In the fortnight before the Dragon handed over to its President Xi Jinping limitless power, foreign minister Wang Yi spoke of a healthy turnaround in Sino-Indian relations. "Let's tango, not fight," he said, adding that "even Himalayas cannot stop improving our ties". Wang made these remarks on Mar 8, 2018 in Beijing while talking to journalists. He has since been promoted as State Councillor in Xi's new cabinet and may lead border talks with India. Peaceniks have quickly jumped to the conclusion that six months after the end of Doklam faceoff with India, China was softening its image. Some commentators opined that President Xi looks to reset China ties with India. And media reports suggest the possibility of an informal Xi-Modi summit sometime in April. The two leaders are also set to meet in June when the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) holds its annual session. This scenario brightened the prospects of momentum returning to the relations between the two Asian giants. But it did not last long. On March 20, as he started his "new long" term as President, Xi flagged nationalism, and thus gave fresh currency to the long -- held view that optimism and despair alternate in the Sino-Indian ties. He did not name any country in his address to the Chinese parliament- National People's Congress (NPC), which mandated absolute power to him, and put him in league with Mao Zedong. Well, Xi assured his receptive audience that under his leadership, China is not seeking hegemony but it will be "absolutely impossible to separate an inch of country's territories." He went on to declare: " We are resolved to fight the bloody battle against our enemies, and on the basis of independence we are determined to recapture the relics. Any action and tricks to split China are doomed to failure and will be condemned by the people and punished by history." The need for such a forthright declaration remains unclear since there is no visible threat to China and its hegemony even in the South China Sea region. Taiwan is not going anywhere and so is Hong Kong. If there is any threat of secession, it is in the Xinjiang province, where Pakistan and its Islamist friends are the real force behind the Uyghur Muslim unrest. President Xi made no mention of the Uyghur insurgency. Probably, he still believes that the likes of Jaish-e- Muhammad (JeM) chief Masood Azhar will honour their commitment not to disturb peace in Urumqi. Islamists' promises should not be taken on face value as the United States of America has learnt the hard way. The kidnap and ransom threats Chinese workers are facing in Pakistan should have been an eye-opener to Beijing. It is not yet the case. And this leaves India with which China has had a territorial dispute in the Himalays. China is also positioning as a challenger in the Indian Ocean region, what with its 'string of pearls.' The Doklam standoff, if we go by the views of noted Sinologist, Bertil Lintner, was not designed against India but aimed at driving a wedge between India and Bhutan. Xi has reasons to worry as the debt levels increased by more than 100 percentage points, or nearly doubled, over the past decade – a period in which he had held the reins of the country for five years. Bertil Lintner How things would shape up vis-à- vis India is difficult to crystal gaze. It should remain vigilant whether on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) or in the Indian Ocean region. Also, to the challenge of a two –front war. More so as the LAC witnessed highest number of transgressions by Chinese military patrols last year. The new defence minister, Wei Fenghe, is known as Missile Man. He is the man who is credited with rapid modernisation of Chinese army, and carving out the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force. Henceforth, his focus will be cutting-edge technologies in areas like drones, robots, aircraft carriers, radar and missiles to sharpen the teeth of the People's Liberation Army. Wei Fenghe President Xi's advice to his countrymen should be taken with all the seriousness it deserves. The people of China must be ready to contend with forces that are likely to hinder their country's growth spiral, he was quoted as saying. As economists of all hues aver, what hinders China's growth momentum is an internal danger that comes from a huge pile up of debt - corporate and household, and it continues to swell. China's overall debt-to-G.D.P. ratio already exceeds 270 per cent which is higher than that of most emergingmarket economies. Xi has reasons to worry as the debt levels increased by more than 100 percentage points, or nearly doubled, over the past decade – a period in which he had held the reins of the country for five years. His goal is to make China a global economic, political and military superpower. But achieving the economic miracle will itself need a miracle. Wang Yi As Tom Holland reported in the South China Morning Post (March 5, 2018), President Xi is setting himself up for failure with his style of government and economic policy. "….Xi's drive to centralise and tighten his control over China's state machinery and economy will rein in – rather than unleash – animal spirits and economic enterprise. The risk is that, with meaningful market-oriented liberalisation largely off the table; China will fall back on a continued expansion of debt to maintain even moderate growth over coming years," Tom wrote almost a week before NPC made Xi President for life by removing the two term limit on Presidency. Will this prognosis hold ground in the years ahead? Difficult to say but if it does, Xi's call for nationalism could help divert attention from the immediate to a catchy rallying point. At this stage, it is not clear as to why Xi Jinping opted to tighten his grip and went about abolishing the two-term limit for president and his deputies. He appears to see "One Belt -One Road nirvana in authoritarianism, which sadly has not offered a recipe anywhere anytime. The term limit was a statutory provision paramount leader Deng Xiaoping had got incorporated in early 1980s as a check against "empire building" he had witnessed during the Cultural Revolution. Chris Buckley reports in the New York Times (Mar 7, 2018) that Xi made his power grab with "stealth, speed and guile". After working behind the scenes for months, (some reports say he got the Politburo nod last Sept), Xi made the CPC's Central Committee give the go ahead to his plan in early January. It, however, came to light almost a month later. The annual session of China's Parliament rubber-stamped the deal on March 11, with as many as 2,958 deputies voting in favour. Only two voted against and three abstained. "I always thought Xi would seek to stay for three or four terms, and could even introduce a new presidential system after his terms were finished. Wang Qishan with Xi Jinping But I never thought the Constitution would be revised so quickly," Wu Wei, a former official who advised Zhao Ziyang, the party leader ousted during the mass protests of 1989 in Tiananmen Square, was quoted as saying in a media dispatch. Xi is going about systematically tightening his hold on the bureaucracy, and the Army. He has set up National Supervision Commission to extend Communist Party's arbitrary disciplinary regime across the country. The new edict says failure to "effectively implement" his edicts will be deemed as "corruption by inaction". "Xi Jinping Thought" has officially become the guiding ideology for the country. Several of his ideas, concepts and policies have entered the constitution. These include: "new development model", "social and ecological civilisation", "harmonious and beautiful", "modern and powerful [country]", "achieve the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", "shared destiny of mankind" and "promote core socialist values". Donald Trump The Chinese constitution now describes the Communist party's leadership as the "the most fundamental characteristic" of Chinese socialism. Put simply, it means CPC is the only party fit to rule China, and Xi is the paramount leader. No surprise, therefore, "who would dare to challenge or transcend Xi or offer him any advice," asks Tseng Chien-yuan, an associate professor at Chung Hua University in Taiwan. Well, this is dangerous since it makes China slide back into strongman politics. Already the Xi regime has seen a tightening of controls on society both online and offline. Says a commentator "Personalisation of power under Xi began in 2016, when he was anointed the core of the party – bringing back an obscure title that had not been used for 10 years and had previously been held only by leaders in power for more than two consecutive terms." On the foreign policy front, President Xi has put in place a team of "highly trained experts" to help deliver on his global goals. Most of them have made their mark in handling the West. The new vice president, Wang Qisham, who has been a major player in Xi's battle against corruption, also has experience in dealing with the U. S. A signal that Xi is increasingly worried about Washington, which under President Trump, has become unpredictable in diplomacy and tariff regime. On the foreign policy front, President Xi has put in place a team of "highly trained experts" to help deliver on his global goals. Most of them have made their mark in handling the West. The new vice president, Wang Qisham, who has been a major player in Xi's battle against corruption, also has experience in dealing with the U. S. A signal that Xi is increasingly worried about Washington, which under President Trump, has become unpredictable in diplomacy and tariff regime. Xi's economic policies may be in the hands of a hand-picked Harvardreturned in his quest for a new development model Growth has been a mirage beyond the four metros and poverty and debt levels are not looking south. There is no longer pressure on Chinese companies to spread overseas. Instead they are facing the axe for debt–fuelled spending. One such company is Anbang Insurance Group, whose acquisitions include the iconic Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York and major financial firms in South Korea and the Netherlands as well as overseas properties worth billions of dollars. The state has since taken over the company. Will one act be enough? That is a question with no answers. The Chinese economy flush with its own variant of black money is primarily export-driven and addicted to debt. President Xi may be serious to cleanse the financial system and stabilise the world's second largest economy. Scepticism is justified nevertheless. Reason? The Chinese officials are known to be reluctant to "pare back at the risk of curbing growth and provoking unrest".