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DATELINE KARNATAKA
A hung Assembly likelyNarendra Modi and Amit Shah Rahul Gandhi and Siddaramiah Mamtha Sharma With barely a few
weeks to go for
K a r n a t a k a ' s
Assembly elections,
both the ruling
Congress and the
opposition BJP and JDS are girding their
loins for what promises to be an
intense battle which will leave many
scars. Siddaramiah or "Seedha Rupiah"That may have led the BJP to mellow its attack initially on the Siddaramiah government, forced as it was to redraw its campaign plans ; even to pep up a demoralised state unit which till then was riding high on the successful public rallies of its two most important leaders. It was in these rallies that the BJP attacked the Siddaramiah government for its alleged corruption . Modi first called it a ten per cent commission government before lacing it with a direct attack on Siddaramiah when he said the apt definition of the Congress under its chief minister would be "Seedha Rupiah" government. That attack appeared to unnerve the ruling party here which recoiled, putting up an air of injured innocence in the process. More so , as "the ten per cent commission government" allegation symbolised corruption of a high order. Incidentally, the late Jayalalitha as chief minister of Tamil Nadu in 1991-1996 , had faced similar allegations. She was even sent to jail later for possessing assets disproportionate to her income.
H D Kumaraswamy
In Karnataka , the fact is that the
Siddaramiah government has often
come under sharp criticism for
corruption in general . Two young IAS
officers, in particular, lost their lives,
allegedly in their attempt to resist
political influence and corruption, to
mention just one example . To the urban voters, this is something that hits them directly. If they were to come out and vote on the crucial day in large numbers, something that never happens, it could cost the Congress dearly, at least in the 28 assembly seats which the IT capital accounts for. Importantly, though, the biggest plank of the Congress is the stable government that it provided in the last five years under Siddaramiah, the first chief minister to complete his full term in over 40 years. In the past the Congress party has seen its chief ministers like Deveraj Urs and Veerendra Patil, being shown the door mid way , even insulted by an arrogant Central leadership. But then that era now remains a mere memory, at least for majority of the young Congressmen. In Siddaramiah' case, it does not even matter considering that he joined the party in July 2006 ,after deserting the JDS. Importantly ,the Congress' central leadership has been too weak and inexperienced under Rahul Gandhi to interfere with the state government, considering that Karnataka is only one of the few states under its flag.
BS Yeddyurappa
That appears to have helped
Siddaramiah in safely completing his
term though another Congress chief
minister, S M Krishna, had voluntarily
called for simultaneous elections in 2004, much before his term was to
end. Its another matter that the move
proved a folly as neither the Congress
and nor the BJP could get enough
numbers. Consequently, the state
witnessed two coalition governments
during 2004 –2008 , one under the
Congress—JDS combine and the other
with the
latter 's H D Kumaraswamy as the chief
minister with BJP as partner.
Yeddyurappa is back with the BJP and remains its chief ministerial candidate. But there is no sympathy vote to bank on. In addition, there is always the stigma of massive corruption for which his government had become notorious.
M B Patil
As part of the coalition agreement
between the JDS and the BJP, the two
partners were to share power with
Kumaraswamy giving up the chief
minister's post for BS Yeddyurappa of
the BJP, after the first 20 months . That
he did not do so , helped create
history for the BJP which used the sympathy vote to romp home in the
2008 elections. This time even though Yeddyurappa is back with the BJP and remains its chief ministerial candidate, there is no sympathy vote to bank on. In addition, there is always the stigma of massive corruption for which his government had become notorious apart from its unimpressive rule. So much so that Yeddy himself had to spend some time in the cooler for his alleged involvement in the mining scam and the denotification of government lands. To that extent, when the two parties accuse each other of corruption, its like the pot calling the kettle black. Splitting Lingayat voteMore significicantly, under the BJP
rule in 2008-13 , the party saw three
chief ministers, something that the
Congress has been able to avoid by
allowing Siddaramiah to complete his
term undisturbed . Das panelThis also explains why the
Siddaramiah government set up a
seven member panel under retired
judge, N Das , to examine the demand
for a separate religion tag for the ever
demanding Lingayat sect. This section
of the community follows the
teachings of 12th century social
reformer,Basavanna, and does not
believe in any idol worship while
promoting women's empowerment. Nevertheless, this makes the 2018 election all the more crucial for the BJP . The party also has to take note of the pro-Kannada tilt provided by the Siddaramiah government when it objected to the use of Hindi in the IT capital's Metro rail services. Similarly by encouraging the use of a state flag, the chief minister has made matters more difficult for the opposition. Having said that, the truth is that
the Congress is not blind to the fact
that its move to split the Lingayat vote
could prove counter-productive too,
considering the opposition from a
large number of Veerashaiva swamis
and mutth leaders. Besides, even
within the party senior Congressmen
belonging to the Veerashaiva sect
have frowned on MB Patil's move.
Irrespective of the final decision, the
move itself has caused a rift within the Lingayats already , evident from the
protests one sees from the seers of the
two sects . As of now though with all the accompanying issues plaguing the BJP and the Congress, along side their advantages, the prospects of a clear winner appear unlikely. It is here that the JDS can become important even if it gets 20 to 30 seats, something that cannot be ruled out, more so as its influence among the dominant Vokkaliga community in the Hassan- Ramnagar-- Mysuru- Chamrajnagar belt and rural Bengaluru, in particular, cannot be undermined.
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