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Current Issue: July 2009
IRANIAN TURMOIL
Basics Remain The Same

The current political unrest in Iran would have little impact on its foreign policy course. Both Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main challenger Mir Hosian Mousavi in the recent controversial election are the products of the same 1979 Iranian revolution and the ideology behind that has since guided the state’s policy, argues Jagdish N Singh

Given the nature of contemporary Iranian society and polity, one wonders what really is happening there today and what might follow tomorrow. However, reports emanating after Iranian strongman Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has won a landslide victory in the recent presidential election and managed a second term for himself in the presidency portend an uncertain future ahead ,at least on its domestic front . The on-going mass protest led by lead challenger in Iran's presidential election Mir Hosain Mousavi against the current leadership continues to grow in the country.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamnei, who matters most in the country's deep-rooted religiolegal and political structure, has thrown his weight behind Ahmadinejad . The government has also gagged the press giving reformist writers and journalists a tough time. Saudi Arabia's Al Arabia television channel has already closed its Tehran bureau. Tehran-based British Broadcasting Corporation's correspondent, too, has been ordered to leave the country. Besides, the government is said to have employed, apart from its own highly secretive, repressive machinery, Palestinian Hamas members and Lebanese Hezbollah militiamen to crush the current massive protests in the country. According to the Voice of America, there are today up to 5,000 members of the Lebanese Hezbollah fighting against the

protesters. The militiamen have been identified by their screams in Arabic. But none of these measures has been able to extinguish the fire of protest so far.

One, however, finds the current unrest in Iran would have little impact on its foreign policy course. Both Ahmadinejad and Mousavi are the products of the same 1979 Iranian revolution and the ideology behind that has since guided its foreign policy. Given this background, knowledgeable sources say, Tehran is likely to continue its pursuit of nuclear technology in defiance of the international community. In the past the latter imposed sanctions on the regime and even offered incentives to persuade Iran to halt its uranium enrichment programme. That did not work. The future would not be different.


America and the world would have to take into account this ground reality in their futuristic policy towards Iran. With the stubborn Ahmadinejad back in the Iranian presidency, the situation might get even worse. Iranian officials have of late been saying around that they plan to share their nuclear technology with others too. This is particularly alarming for Israel, to the extinction of which Ahmadubejad has been committed and for which he has been straining every nerve, including aiding the forces like Hamas morally, materially and militarily.

The sources say Iran would continue to give sleepless moments to many Muslim states as well. Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia have always been opposed to Islamism of all hues whatever the quarter of the world. The Iranian brand of Islamism cannot be an exception to them. Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia have traditionally been skeptical of a growing Shia Iran. Pertinently, Cairo has been so critical of the growing potentials of Tehran that during the latter's eight-year old war with Baghdad, it chose to provide Iraq's strongman Saddam Hussein much needed manpower and Soviet weaponry to humiliate Iran. Most of the Lebanese, Iraqis and Palestinians, too, have never liked the interference of Iran in their affairs. According to an estimate, Iran today is giving $200 million to Hezbollah and $20 million - $30 million to Hamas annually. Tehran has also trained more than 3,000 Hezbollah operatives in Iran.

Such Iranian activities are seen as undermining the internal political dynamics in Lebanon and Palestine. The occasional verbal warfare between legendary PLO chief Yasser Arafat and Iranian spiritual leader Khamenei can be referred to in this regard.


In contrast, the sources say, Iran's relations are likely to get warmer with some of the Latin and South American nations. During the last couple of years, Tehran's major allies in the region have been Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales. In July 2007, Iran and Venezuela began construction on two joint petrochemical complexes, one in Iran and the other in Venezuela, at a combined cost of $1.4 billion. Later, in November 2007, Chavez and Ahmadinejad signed four memorandums of understanding aimed at creating a joint bank, a fund, an oil industry technical training programme and an industrial accord. Since 2007 Iran has provided Bolivia more than $1.1 billion in industrial cooperation funds.

Pertinently, America and its close allies may need to appreciate the implications of the growing alliances among Iran, Venezuela, and Bolivia. The latter group accounts for almost 10 per cent of global oil production, giving it a substantial bargaining position in the negotiation of global oil prices. It may be recalled that in November 2007, Chavez had already threatened to raise the price of oil to $200 per barrel if the United States attacked Iran (or Venezuela) . Over the past few years, Iran has also developed new political ties with Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay. Of Iran's trade volume with countries from Latin America estimated at over $20 billion, Brazil alone accounts for $2 billion today. The level of relationships between the two can well be imagined from the fact that in November 2008, Brazil even pleaded in the UN Security Council to "shelve Iran's nuclear dossier and allow the normalization of the country's enrichment case."

Tehran has with Havana an economic cooperation agreement since February 2006 to facilitate export of Iranian goods as well as engineering and technical services to Cuba. In mid-2008, Iran also granted Cuba a $270 million credit line. Iran's relations with Ecuador have also flourished considerably in the recent past. In December 2008, Iran and agreed to open embassies in each other's capital and to explore cooperation in the fields of defense, energy, technology and science. Subsequently, in early 2009, Iran's military specialists in guerrilla and anti-guerrilla warfare supervised the Ecuadorian military.

 
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